Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | $120 | in 70d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,837 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 45d | selador2 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,227 | −$118 −3.7% | — |
| 45d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | +$14 +0.9% | 4 | |
| 86d | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 94¢ | $1,134 | +$37 +3.3% | 10 | |
| 116d | selador8 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,853 | +$136 +0.7% | 4 |
| 118d | selador | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 119d | Colbertghn | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 119d | Colbertghn | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x36fb…60b56 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $120,069 | +$1,090 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x36fb…60b5 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,978 | −$181 −0.9% | — |
| 135d | 0x9e84…e3de4 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $80,065 | +$727 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0xa306…5c589 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $130,168 | +$1,182 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0xad0b…769611 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $170,155 | +$1,545 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0xd03e…aaef16 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $220,805 | +$2,005 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x487b…1a7a16 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $261,228 | +$2,372 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x869a…143014 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $210,885 | +$1,915 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x3fef…0f6313 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $190,768 | +$1,732 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x7a3d…6b3b16 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $171,984 | +$1,582 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x7a3d…6b3b | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,282 | −$184 −0.9% | — |
| 135d | 0x4db0…b6473 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $60,326 | +$548 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x822d…8d225 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $50,070 | +$455 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0xbd7b…c87b6 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $60,055 | +$545 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x059f…0c968 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $80,073 | +$727 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x1913…145d6 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $60,022 | +$545 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0xe556…9dc38 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $80,152 | +$728 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x827c…3c0d7 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $70,064 | +$636 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0xa76f…78328 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $80,152 | +$728 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x7973…0fcc12 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $120,029 | +$1,090 +0.9% | 4 |
| 135d | 0x869a…1430 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,009 | −$91 −0.9% | — |
| 195d | ShelleyKlein7975 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo87¢ → 94¢ | $2,099 | +$169 +8.0% | 13 |
| 206d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 212d | helloiamworld | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $2,231 | +$11 +0.5% | 4 |
| 218d | selador2 fills | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,012 | +$38 +1.3% | 4 |
| 251d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,979 | +$165 +3.3% | 4 | |
| 304d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | −$80 −7.5% | — | |
| 326d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,889 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 327d | idkwid | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,561 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 328d | big6big8 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$23 +1.7% | 4 |
| 328d | BTC-WHALE | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | +$26 +1.9% | 4 |
| 330d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,007 | −$52 −2.6% | — | |
| 336d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,380 | −$89 −3.7% | — | |
| 344d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,653 | −$47 −2.8% | — | |
| 345d | sergdfvghugh321 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,877 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 345d | dfjderthsdfg466 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,013 | −$18 −0.9% | — |
| 345d | sergdfvghugh321 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | +$13 +0.7% | 4 |
| 345d | dfjderthsdfg466 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,017 | +$14 +0.7% | 4 |
| 345d | dhdsrtsv655 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$16 +0.8% | 4 |
| 345d | sdfger754 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,894 | +$15 +0.8% | 4 |
| 345d | u64y7erdhujdrtfujg | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,584 | −$29 −1.1% | — |
| 345d | jsae45y7dhjsdrt | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,292 | −$37 −1.1% | — |
| 345d | u64y7erdhujdrtfujg | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,592 | +$21 +0.8% | 4 |
| 345d | jsae45y7dhjsdrt | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,302 | +$27 +0.8% | 4 |
| 345d | gtbtrdfy65edyhfd | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,122 | +$21 +1.0% | 4 |
| 345d | kifgcftfzser7y457ur | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,901 | +$19 +1.0% | 4 |
| 345d | kigdj54786esd | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,858 | +$19 +1.0% | 4 |
| 346d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 350d | lava-lava | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | +$233 +19% | 4 |
| 351d | flagrant2 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$22 +2.1% | 4 |
| 351d | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$108 +9.9% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 6%.