Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 434d | Mannerism | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,067 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 434d |  studmuffin6969 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,422 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 434d | JimmyG48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,026 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 434d | skylove | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,580 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 434d |  Justitia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,443 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 434d | Eheh | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,722 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 434d | ggg1123 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 434d |  EverythingAlwaysHappens | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,065 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 434d | slight- | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,010 | +$90 +3.0% | 20 |
| 434d |  TeemuPukki | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,630 | −$370 −3.8% | — |
| 434d | Qtyu2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $15,025 | +$321 +2.1% | 20 |
| 434d |  CCPig | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,435 | +$108 +2.0% | 20 |
| 434d |  debased2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,670 | +$195 +1.7% | 20 |
| 434d | worldeconomy | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,419 | +$22 +1.5% | 20 |
| 434d | TeemuPukki | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,032 | +$100 +1.7% | 20 |
| 434d | no-nombre2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,844 | −$63 −2.2% | — |
| 434d | lowrisk24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,654 | +$46 +1.7% | 20 |
| 434d | JimmyG48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$19 +1.9% | 20 |
| 434d | Alder | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,924 | +$76 +1.9% | 20 |
| 434d | CanadianGoose4 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $26,620 | +$450 +1.7% | 20 |
| 434d |  one8tyfive | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,939 | +$61 +2.1% | 20 |
| 434d |  Euan | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,492 | +$98 +2.2% | 20 |
| 434d |  RelaySucks7 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $45,795 | +$794 +1.7% | 20 |
| 434d |  STARRR | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$24 +2.2% | 20 |
| 434d |  Oniidon | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$24 +2.3% | 20 |
| 434d |  SwissMiss3 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $30,643 | +$833 +2.7% | 20 |
| 434d |  Tenebrus73 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,218 | +$211 +2.6% | 20 |
| 434d |  BuckMySalls | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $18,053 | +$463 +2.6% | 20 |
| 434d |  Ogonee2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,206 | +$313 +2.6% | 20 |
| 434d | exposito2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $28,916 | +$1,148 +4.0% | 20 |
| 434d | nicdan2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,354 | +$78 +3.3% | 20 |
| 434d | alsegrante2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,168 | +$112 +2.2% | 20 |
| 434d | eugen1j | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 434d |  gg-anon | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,902 | +$156 +1.6% | 20 |
| 434d |  yzh1014 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,196 | −$177 −2.5% | — |
| 434d | NELF2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,057 | +$84 +1.7% | 20 |
| 435d |  wbxxx3 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,158 | +$155 +1.5% | 20 |
| 435d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,162 | +$84 +2.0% | 20 |
| 435d | shred77772 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,149 | +$91 +2.9% | 20 |
| 435d | no-nombre2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,858 | +$49 +1.7% | 20 |
| 435d | Mannerism | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$16 +1.6% | 21 |
| 435d |  bosshog | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,216 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 435d |  RealRobertHouse | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,347 | −$60 −1.8% | — |
| 435d | RealRobertHouse | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,364 | +$43 +1.3% | 20 |
| 435d | evseemore | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | −$18 −1.8% | — |
| 435d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,383 | +$34 +1.4% | 20 |
| 436d | AyanamiMx | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,675 | +$232 +1.5% | 20 |
| 436d | lolapooza | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,148 | −$42 −1.9% | — |
| 436d |  TealV | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,921 | +$79 +1.6% | 20 |
| 436d |  classified | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$19 +1.6% | 20 |
| 436d | Hashbrown4 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,537 | +$390 +3.1% | 20 |
| 436d | humanoid33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | −$17 −1.6% | — |
| 436d | pako | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,575 | −$146 −1.7% | — |
| 437d |  SiSi | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$124 +1.2% | 20 |
| 437d |  ScottyNooo | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$16 +1.6% | 20 |
| 437d |  HappyBear | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$21 +1.6% | 20 |
| 438d | pako2 fills | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,497 | +$223 +2.6% | 20 |
| 438d | Parz1vaI | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | −$45 −1.8% | — |
| 439d |  Plant2tri | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,078 | +$34 +1.6% | 20 |
| 439d | lolapooza | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$64 +2.6% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by August 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
