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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 213d |  ColdConviction | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$30 +2.9% | 20 |
| 213d |  Tanjirooo | March 31 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,516 | −$239 −16% | — |
| 219d | selador | March 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | +$34 +2.1% | 20 |
| 224d | dedredted62 | March 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,200 | +$86 +2.0% | 20 |
| 227d | alwaysOn | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,661 | +$55 +3.3% | 20 |
| 227d | Corrupt-Lark2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,693 | +$180 +3.2% | 20 |
| 235d | 100x | March 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $10,105 | +$378 +3.7% | 20 |
| 236d |  Tigerofthehood3 fills | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $15,850 | +$912 +5.8% | 20 |
| 258d |  Arlette | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | +$43 +3.1% | 20 |
| 258d |  Crypto-Dawg | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$53 +5.1% | 20 |
| 261d |  adonpoli | March 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,354 | −$46 −3.4% | — |
| 261d | Scoofy-Bubik2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,148 | +$152 +3.7% | 20 |
| 263d | adonpoli2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $11,284 | +$604 +5.4% | 20 |
| 294d | asskik2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $8,945 | +$555 +6.2% | 20 |
| 295d | sdiff123 | March 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $7,344 | +$511 +7.0% | 20 |
| 295d | Anon55662 fills | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $11,220 | +$780 +7.0% | 20 |
| 340d | Scoofy-Bubik | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,077 | +$223 +4.4% | 20 |
| 357d |  AgricultureSecretary | October 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,151 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 360d |  Opium42 fills | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,695 | +$127 +2.2% | 20 |
| 360d |  SerjShard106 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | +$13 +0.8% | 20 |
| 361d |  GobiDesertCanoePro | October 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,447 | −$53 −1.6% | — |
| 363d |  KatieSprygada1 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,052 | +$51 +1.0% | 20 |
| 369d |  LevonS | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 372d |  BB2020 | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,849 | +$34 +1.8% | 20 |
| 374d | kaniyasuo | October 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$37 −3.7% | — |
| 374d | kaniyasuo | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | +$22 +2.1% | 20 |
| 382d | GobiDesertCanoePro3 fills | October 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $16,980 | +$526 +3.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  Goopster | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$29 +2.3% | 20 |
| 387d | funguy1988 | October 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$28 +2.8% | 20 |
| 389d |  dooby2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,890 | +$269 +4.6% | 20 |
| 393d |  NoPeeking | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$120 +6.4% | 20 |
tupac2,128 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 0%.