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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 100% | +73 pts | +68 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| October 31 | 100% | +55 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 8d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24d | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,001 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,911 | −$143 −2.4% | — | |
| 24d | dromedaryy | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,168 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 24d | Unfinished-July | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,611 | +$26 +0.1% | 4 |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,031 | −$2 −0.2% | — | |
| 24d | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,324 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 24d | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,279 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 24d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e23 fills | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,226 | +$19 +0.2% | 4 |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $34,342 | +$316 +0.9% | 4 | |
| 24d | PwnedUrChoice | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,460 | +$14 +0.6% | 4 | |
| 24d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,782 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 24d | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,050 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,962 | +$12 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $7,968 | +$1,491 +19% | 4 | |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,935 | +$58 +1.2% | 4 | |
| 24d | October 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,421 | +$56 +1.6% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $7,415 | +$1,004 +14% | 6 | |
| 24d | HornyBibi6 fills | September 30 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $33,068 | +$12,080 +37% | 6 |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | +$40 +2.0% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | −$70 −6.2% | — | |
| 24d | HornyBibi3 fills | September 30 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $18,925 | −$1,232 −6.5% | — |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,490 | −$42 −2.8% | — | |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,658 | +$55 +1.2% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $16,812 | +$4,031 +24% | 7 | |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,530 | +$20 +1.3% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,293 | −$35 −2.7% | — | |
| 24d | AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee | September 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,569 | −$49 −3.1% | — |
| 24d | ScaryDream | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,549 | +$264 +3.1% | 5 |
| 24d | STTTT | October 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,146 | +$88 +4.1% | 4 |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | +$80 +4.5% | 5 | |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,201 | +$109 +5.0% | 4 | |
| 24d | AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee | September 30 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,381 | +$237 +17% | 6 |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,316 | +$1,233 +53% | 9 | |
| 24d | Sissi63 | September 30 | BuyNo42¢ → 0¢ | $3,138 | −$3,138 −100% | 11 |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $24,963 | +$16,401 +66% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $2,382 | −$2,382 −100% | 12 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $5,835 | +$4,369 +75% | 9 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,266 | +$756 +60% | 9 | |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | +$679 +63% | 9 | |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,483 | +$320 +22% | 4 | |
| 24d | December 31 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,863 | −$293 −16% | — | |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | −$330 −28% | — | |
| 24d | Thanks4TheMoney | September 30 | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $6,447 | −$1,881 −29% | — |
| 24d | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | +$101 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 24d | September 30 | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $4,686 | −$4,345 −93% | — | |
| 24d | Thanks4TheMoney3 fills | September 30 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $5,860 | +$1,088 +19% | 7 |
| 24d | September 30 | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,220 | −$1,220 −100% | 9 | |
| 25d | September 30 | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 9 | |
| 25d | September 30 | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,300 | −$1,300 −100% | 9 | |
| 25d | Cryptokatkat | September 30 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $2,003 | −$2,003 −100% | 9 |
| 25d | Ludkapol2 fills | September 30 | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $2,067 | −$2,067 −100% | 10 |
| 25d | September 30 | SellYes44¢ → 100¢ | $2,890 | −$3,710 −128% | — | |
| 25d | September 30 | BuyYes33¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$2,530 +206% | 10 | |
| 25d | Giant-Bolero | September 30 | SellYes31¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | −$2,562 −225% | — |
| 25d | December 31 | BuyNo35¢ → 0¢ | $1,110 | −$1,110 −100% | 4 | |
| 25d | September 30 | SellYes46¢ → 100¢ | $9,846 | −$11,407 −116% | — | |
| 25d | Newshound | September 30 | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $2,475 | −$2,475 −100% | 9 |
| 25d | Novatan | September 30 | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $2,182 | −$1,714 −79% | — |
| 25d | September 30 | SellNo45¢ → 0¢ | $5,227 | +$5,227 +100% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 100%.