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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 118d |  ScottyNooo | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,345 | +$41 +1.2% | 20 |
| 118d | makeadream | June 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,249 | +$102 +1.9% | 20 |
| 122d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | June 30 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$56 −5.0% | — |
| 142d | user34234 | June 30 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,643 | −$175 −11% | — |
| 148d | user34234 | June 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$96 +9.5% | 20 |
| 161d |  tetrose | June 30 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,436 | −$355 −25% | — |
| 222d | novgan | June 30 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,339 | −$244 −18% | — |
| 228d | Espot2211 | March 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 231d | jesus911 | March 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,347 | −$53 −4.0% | — |
| 233d | novgan | June 30 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,814 | +$416 +23% | 20 |
| 233d | novgan | March 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,814 | −$51 −2.8% | — |
| 236d | zve3da | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $8,700 | +$590 +6.8% | 20 |
| 240d | ScottyNooo | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,064 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 250d | MoonLambo1205 | March 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,443 | +$403 +16% | 20 |
| 255d | Wasteful-Fanlight | March 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,917 | +$398 +21% | 22 |
| 255d | Huludubu | February 28 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,309 | +$139 +4.2% | 20 |
| 264d | 73thingetd | March 31 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,289 | −$723 −32% | — |
| 264d | boughtsometu | March 31 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,888 | −$912 −32% | — |
| 264d | bairiyishanjin | March 31 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,356 | −$744 −32% | — |
| 264d | yesorno2 | March 31 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,394 | −$756 −32% | — |
| 267d | boughtsometu | March 31 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,736 | +$1,064 +39% | 20 |
| 267d | yesorno2 | March 31 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,268 | +$882 +39% | 20 |
| 267d | 73thingetd | March 31 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,304 | +$896 +39% | 20 |
| 267d | eugen1j | January 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,537 | −$16 −0.5% | — |
| 268d |  DaytonaOne | January 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,104 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 269d | ScottyNooo3 fills | January 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,064 | +$130 +1.8% | 20 |
| 270d | DaytonaOne | January 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,338 | +$41 +1.2% | 20 |
| 270d | Huludubu4 fills | January 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,218 | −$286 −3.1% | — |
| 271d | PandaTime | January 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | −$15 −1.5% | — |
| 271d | 12100K | January 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | +$26 +1.6% | 20 |
| 271d | Mlunardo | January 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,948 | −$56 −1.9% | — |
| 272d | novgan | March 31 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | +$696 +60% | 20 |
| 272d | novgan | January 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | −$21 −1.8% | — |
| 273d | Moonshot10192 fills | January 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,500 | +$374 +5.0% | 20 |
| 274d | Huludubu5 fills | January 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,820 | +$770 +8.7% | 20 |
| 274d | JoeBlack01 | January 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | −$105 −7.5% | — |
| 275d | Watery-ScenarioNew account | January 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$86 +6.8% | 23 |
| 275d | Mellow-CodNew account | January 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$86 +7.5% | 23 |
| 275d | Wasteful-FanlightNew account | January 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,016 | +$784 +11% | 25 |
| 276d | ace | January 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$69 −6.4% | — |
| 276d | Pavlo84 | January 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,307 | +$147 +6.4% | 20 |
| 276d | jesus911 | March 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$654 +33% | 20 |
| 276d | Natsume2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $11,205 | +$736 +6.6% | 20 |
| 276d | chickenKyiv | January 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,256 | −$109 −8.7% | — |
| 277d | chickenKyiv | January 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | +$82 +6.4% | 20 |
| 277d | ace | January 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$80 +7.5% | 20 |
| 278d | AnonSequitur | January 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$143 +11% | 20 |
| 278d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | January 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,389 | −$265 −11% | — |
| 279d | Illiterate-Repeat | January 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $8,699 | −$1,151 −13% | — |
| 279d |  uncleroger | January 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | +$120 +11% | 20 |
| 280d | AnonSequitur | January 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,862 | −$254 −14% | — |
| 280d | TttTttt | January 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,587 | −$285 −11% | — |
| 280d | Dolinka632 fills | January 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,814 | −$245 −8.7% | — |
| 284d | Cudnbdls | March 31 | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,621 | +$877 +54% | 20 |
| 284d | Cudnbdls | January 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,483 | +$517 +15% | 20 |
| 288d | amused85 | March 31 | SellNo54¢ → 100¢ | $2,318 | −$1,942 −84% | — |
| 288d | amused85 | January 31 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,038 | −$348 −17% | — |
| 293d | eugen1j2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,523 | +$439 +17% | 20 |
| 294d | Illiterate-RepeatNew account | January 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$739 +8.2% | 24 |
| 296d |  beno1cH | December 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,330 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
Fallout21,557 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework. 2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials. 3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 0%.