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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $18,227 | +$3,087 +17% | 20 | |
| 296d | pacific1 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,064 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 297d | JoeBlack013 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,300 | −$37 −0.5% | — |
| 297d | Easy-Macaw | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,292 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 297d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $95,364 | +$16,448 +17% | 20 | |
| 297d | mypension | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,183 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 297d | Angevin | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 298d | Pavelevel3 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,806 | +$45 +0.1% | 20 |
| 298d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo100¢ | $1,095 | −$6 −0.5% | — | |
| 299d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,875 | −$6 −0.3% | — | |
| 299d | jackdolphin3232 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,380 | −$197 −1.0% | — |
| 299d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,737 | +$357 +4.6% | 20 | |
| 300d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$57 +4.1% | 21 | |
| 300d | 0x4381…84a5 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,135 | −$192 −6.1% | — |
| 300d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,490 | +$231 +5.1% | 20 | |
| 300d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,411 | −$89 −6.3% | — | |
| 300d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$78 +5.5% | 20 | |
| 301d | scuf2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,906 | −$485 −8.2% | — |
| 301d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,904 | +$96 +3.3% | 20 | |
| 301d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,901 | +$167 +4.3% | 20 |
| 302d | kirik9885 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $8,606 | +$631 +7.3% | 20 |
| 303d | 58fafafa | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | +$11 +0.8% | 20 |
| 304d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,991 | −$77 −1.9% | — | |
| 304d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,174 | −$42 −1.9% | — | |
| 305d | jiamp | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 305d | xenonliu | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,741 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 306d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,811 | −$98 −1.4% | — | |
| 306d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | −$121 −2.6% | — | |
| 307d | CanadianGoose | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | +$40 +2.8% | 20 |
| 308d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,770 | +$230 +3.4% | 20 | |
| 308d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,521 | +$101 +4.0% | 20 | |
| 308d | Feline-Subgroup | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,735 | −$239 −4.2% | — |
| 309d | big6big8 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,621 | +$67 +4.1% | 20 |
| 311d | jkdsk | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$50 +4.5% | 20 |
| 311d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,396 | +$104 +4.3% | 20 | |
| 311d | bullllud | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$59 +4.7% | 20 |
| 311d | pacific1 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$53 +5.3% | 20 |
| 311d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | −$63 −5.6% | — | |
| 312d | Trumpchi | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | −$99 −7.9% | — |
| 312d | Arpi | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | −$66 −5.5% | — |
| 313d | lowrisk242 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,493 | −$144 −5.8% | — |
| 313d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,744 | +$156 +4.2% | 20 | |
| 313d | hopedieslast2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $24,000 | +$1,000 +4.2% | 20 |
| 314d | NeH | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,307 | −$211 −4.0% | — |
| 315d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$72 −5.5% | — | |
| 316d | 0xa258…9db1 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$43 −4.3% | — |
| 316d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,635 | +$235 +4.2% | 20 | |
| 317d | lowrisk244 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $10,051 | +$838 +8.3% | 20 |
| 319d | scuf2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,980 | +$410 +6.9% | 20 |
| 319d | 003hao | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,028 | −$116 −5.7% | — |
| 319d | bokaf | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,235 | −$165 −7.4% | — |
| 320d | vakulchik | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | −$95 −7.6% | — |
| 320d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$90 −8.1% | — | |
| 322d | ThunderDoge | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,253 | −$174 −7.7% | — |
| 324d | fbb0226 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,018 | +$187 +9.3% | 20 |
| 324d | 235623451 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,745 | +$255 +9.3% | 20 |
| 324d | Huludubu2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,268 | +$231 +10% | 20 |
| 324d | travaler | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$127 +8.5% | 20 |
| 324d | chapp | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,525 | −$149 −9.8% | — |
| 324d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $6,703 | −$655 −9.8% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.