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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 29% | +5 pts | +12 pts | 28¢ · 30¢ (2¢) | $1.7K | in 159d |
| December 31 | 18% | −6 pts | +7 pts | 16¢ · 19¢ (3¢) | $1.19K | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | March 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 71¢ | $1,538 | −$81 −5.3% | 21 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official. Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed. The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 29¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 29%.