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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | +11 pts | +39 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 5 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 21 | 100% | +38 pts | +72 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −68 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 15 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 19 | 0% | −6 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 20 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +4 pts | +30 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | −1 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 18 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 23 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 16 | 0% | −49 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| June 10 | 0% | +2 pts | −5 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| June 18 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 19 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 17 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 17 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 22 | 0% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 3 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 14 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 16 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 28 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 13 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124d | PMC-OLMA | June 21 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,014 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 125d | Top1-J3 fills | June 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,650 | +$110 +0.9% | 4 |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $109,952 | +$130 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 125d | kukubaja | June 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 125d | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,927 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 125d | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,435 | +$46 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 125d | GoblinMarine | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,641 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 125d | GoblinMarine2 fills | June 21 | SellYes27¢ → 100¢ | $4,171 | −$11,505 −276% | — |
| 125d | July 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $6,111 | +$889 +15% | 4 | |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,664 | +$175 +1.6% | 5 | |
| 125d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | June 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 125d | Reasonable-Tabby4 fills | June 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,805 | +$106 +0.5% | 4 |
| 125d | Reasonable-Tabby2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,123 | +$34 +0.2% | 4 |
| 125d | Reasonable-Tabby | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,404 | +$10 +0.3% | 4 |
| 125d | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,052 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 125d | jklsjdwoqejasdf | June 21 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | −$29 −2.5% | — |
| 125d | June 21 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,988 | −$108 −2.2% | — | |
| 125d | apple-pi | July 31 | SellYes100¢ | $2,047 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 125d | Watchful-Fund3 fills | July 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $11,491 | +$504 +4.4% | 4 |
| 125d | June 21 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,927 | −$73 −3.8% | — | |
| 125d | July 31 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $31,771 | −$5,343 −17% | — | |
| 125d | June 21 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,360 | −$158 −1.7% | — | |
| 125d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,625 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 125d | June 21 | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $4,827 | −$1,814 −38% | — | |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,905 | +$13 +0.7% | 4 | |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,655 | +$14 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,605 | +$47 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 125d | onekey02 | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,450 | +$10 +0.4% | 4 |
| 125d | June 30 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $8,715 | +$810 +9.3% | 4 | |
| 125d | IronCheetah | June 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | −$13 −1.2% | — |
| 125d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,966 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 125d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | June 21 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,330 | +$41 +1.8% | 4 |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | +$20 +1.8% | 4 | |
| 125d | greengasper | June 21 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$259 +6.5% | 4 |
| 125d | vad1 | June 21 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | −$101 −8.2% | — |
| 125d | narua | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,672 | −$13 −0.8% | — |
| 125d | hooooopeless2 fills | June 21 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,584 | −$385 −15% | — |
| 125d | BrightStars4 fills | June 21 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $35,516 | +$3,055 +8.6% | 7 |
| 125d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA960411 fills | June 30 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $20,958 | −$4,097 −20% | — |
| 125d | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,182 | +$22 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 125d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA960413 fills | June 30 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $25,540 | +$9,094 +36% | 4 |
| 125d | lordedward2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,404 | +$116 +3.4% | 4 |
| 125d | BrightStars2 fills | June 21 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,266 | −$67 −2.0% | — |
| 125d | PMC-OLMA | June 21 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$74 +5.4% | 6 |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | +$189 +14% | 8 | |
| 125d | zwxokx2 | June 21 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,585 | +$319 +12% | 8 |
| 125d | tsekinming01 | June 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,575 | +$47 +3.0% | 4 |
| 125d | snowstorm3842 | June 21 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$139 +11% | 7 |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$1,166 +13% | 8 | |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,658 | +$990 +37% | 11 | |
| 125d | June 21 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | +$251 +20% | 10 | |
| 125d | greengasper | June 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | −$51 −3.6% | — |
| 125d | June 21 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $5,500 | −$1,379 −25% | — | |
| 125d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96044 fills | June 21 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $6,375 | −$1,814 −28% | — |
| 125d | hooooopeless3 fills | June 21 | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $3,666 | +$3,011 +82% | 9 |
| 125d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96042 fills | June 21 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $5,108 | +$892 +17% | 8 |
| 125d | June 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,460 | −$131 −3.8% | — | |
| 125d | June 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,389 | +$320 +3.4% | 4 | |
| 125d | Somber-Ice | June 21 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $4,073 | −$427 −10% | — |
| 125d | Measly-Adapter2 fills | June 21 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $3,347 | −$1,644 −49% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 100%.