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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-18% | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <6% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 6-9% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 9-12% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 12-15% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 18%+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 326d |  TeemuPukki | 15-18% | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,588 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 333d | wokerjoesleeper | 12-15% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,293 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 339d |  Mr-Krabs | 15-18% | SellYes>99¢ | $2,265 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 339d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | <6% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,493 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 339d |  0xafEe | 15-18% | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,450 | +$94 +0.2% | 10 |
| 339d |  ciro2 | 12-15% | SellNo>99¢ | $4,880 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 343d |  Maskache | 15-18% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | −$25 −1.8% | — |
| 343d |  ITHINKTHISISGODLOVER | 15-18% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,746 | −$32 −1.8% | — |
| 344d | mep2 fills | 12-15% | SellNo>99¢ | $20,551 | −$103 −0.5% | — |
| 344d | Maskache | 15-18% | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$27 +2.0% | 10 |
| 345d |  ImJustKen | 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 346d | pantomime | 15-18% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,247 | −$60 −1.8% | — |
| 346d | pantomime | 12-15% | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,172 | −$37 −1.7% | — |
| 347d | TeemuPukki | 15-18% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | −$28 −1.8% | — |
| 347d | mep2 fills | 12-15% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,166 | +$68 +1.6% | 10 |
| 347d | mep4 fills | 15-18% | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $19,141 | +$4,259 +22% | 10 |
| 348d | patient.2 fills | 15-18% | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,745 | −$498 −13% | — |
| 348d | operationcastle | 15-18% | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $13,332 | −$697 −5.2% | — |
| 349d |  penis. | 15-18% | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,233 | −$170 −5.3% | — |
| 349d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | 15-18% | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $4,220 | +$631 +15% | 10 |
| 349d | patient.2 fills | 15-18% | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $4,483 | +$464 +10% | 10 |
| 349d | kcnyekchno3 fills | 12-15% | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $16,921 | −$1,143 −6.8% | — |
| 349d | mep | 12-15% | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $4,047 | −$4,047 −100% | 19 |
| 350d | grpe | 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 350d | ciro2 | 15-18% | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $3,345 | +$790 +24% | 10 |
| 350d | Dodor | 15-18% | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,445 | +$555 +23% | 10 |
| 350d |  TealV | 15-18% | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,445 | +$555 +23% | 10 |
| 350d |  Cookedtan | 12-15% | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $4,863 | +$1,136 +23% | 10 |
| 350d | influenz.eth | 12-15% | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,486 | +$622 +25% | 10 |
| 350d | PolyPredictor2 fills | 12-15% | SellYes19¢ → 0¢ | $3,461 | +$3,461 +100% | — |
| 351d | Marketpoll | 12-15% | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,990 | −$636 −21% | — |
| 351d | ciro2 | 12-15% | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,741 | +$309 +18% | 10 |
| 351d | operationcastle | 15-18% | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $5,766 | +$1,183 +21% | 10 |
| 351d | operationcastle | 12-15% | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $5,561 | +$1,142 +21% | 10 |
| 351d |  Peerless.Gem | 12-15% | SellYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,072 | +$1,072 +100% | — |
| 352d |  BidenVoter2 fills | 12-15% | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $4,500 | −$4,500 −100% | 16 |
| 352d | PolyPredictor | 15-18% | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,782 | +$1,782 +100% | — |
| 352d |  ComingBack | 12-15% | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $4,583 | −$4,583 −100% | 10 |
| 352d |  edisonyang | 12-15% | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 11 |
| 352d | edisonyang | 15-18% | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $1,406 | −$1,198 −85% | — |
| 352d | haraya3 fills | 12-15% | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $3,688 | −$3,688 −100% | 12 |
| 352d | haraya | 15-18% | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $1,529 | −$1,529 −100% | 11 |
| 352d | haraya2 fills | 15-18% | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $5,244 | −$4,020 −77% | — |
| 352d | mep | 15-18% | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,421 | −$1,421 −100% | 10 |
| 352d | kcnyekchno3 fills | 12-15% | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $7,847 | +$6,693 +85% | 10 |
| 352d |  dreakso | 12-15% | BuyYes38¢ → 0¢ | $1,338 | −$1,338 −100% | 11 |
| 352d | haraya | 12-15% | SellNo62¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | −$729 −61% | — |
| 352d | kcnyekchno4 fills | 15-18% | BuyYes33¢ → 100¢ | $7,414 | +$14,769 +199% | 16 |
| 352d |  Flipadelphia | 15-18% | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,642 | +$963 +36% | 10 |
| 352d |  GoonExile | 12-15% | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $4,905 | −$4,905 −100% | 10 |
| 352d | Chubby-Cofactor | 12-15% | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $1,255 | −$1,255 −100% | 10 |
| 352d | Vint21 | 15-18% | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $1,427 | −$1,427 −100% | 10 |
| 352d | MAGURO | 12-15% | BuyYes89¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 10 |
| 353d | Didakos | 12-15% | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $5,670 | −$5,670 −100% | 10 |
| 353d | Peerless.Gem2 fills | 12-15% | BuyYes21¢ → 0¢ | $3,346 | −$3,346 −100% | 17 |
| 353d | cigarettes | 15-18% | BuyNo13¢ → 0¢ | $1,030 | −$1,030 −100% | 10 |
| 353d | 0xeb9d…e31b | 15-18% | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | −$236 −15% | — |
| 353d | edisonyang2 fills | 15-18% | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,571 | +$407 +8.9% | 10 |
| 353d | wokerjoesleeper | 12-15% | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | +$115 +11% | 10 |
| 353d | 0xeb9d…e31b | 15-18% | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,783 | +$53 +3.0% | 10 |
0x98E8d4e1A62378bfAb2-17399843453703,312 sharesThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Spanberger’s certified statewide vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes) in the certified results. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Abigail Spanberger does not receive the most votes statewide in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the Virginia Department of Elections (Virginia State Board of Elections). If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 15-18% means the market gives it about 100%.