Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 173d | Trustinghorse4 fills | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,719 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 174d | GCNO1 | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,525 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Detailed-Lip | April 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,810 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | cripes3 | April 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,894 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 176d | April 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,895 | −$6 −0.2% | — | |
| 177d | April 30 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,210 | +$618 +19% | 20 | |
| 177d | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 177d | DooBieZ | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,934 | +$66 +1.1% | 20 |
| 180d | Votei14Voude22 | April 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,735 | −$73 −2.7% | — |
| 181d | April 30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,732 | +$115 +4.2% | 20 | |
| 182d | unsx | April 30 | BuyYes6¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 22 |
| 182d | April 30 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | −$55 −5.0% | — | |
| 183d | TheRealWarMonger | April 30 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | −$56 −5.3% | — |
| 184d | mm4ker2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$605 +17% | 20 |
| 184d | Votei14Voude22 | April 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | +$99 +5.3% | 20 |
| 185d | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 186d | Awkward-Bride | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $30,999 | −$31 −0.1% | — |
| 186d | 033033033 | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,221 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 186d | KrackenSruster | April 30 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,901 | −$219 −12% | — |
| 186d | balabalababalabala | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | wiq | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 186d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,746 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,027 | −$4 −0.2% | — | |
| 186d | DooBieZ | April 15 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,280 | −$15 −0.2% | — |
| 186d | Awkward-Bride2 fills | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,895 | +$135 +0.4% | 20 |
| 187d | LordofPM | April 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,316 | +$131 +1.1% | 20 |
| 188d | April 15 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | −$45 −2.8% | — | |
| 188d | L.X2 fills | April 15 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,005 | −$190 −2.7% | — |
| 188d | balabalababalabala | April 15 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,875 | +$83 +2.1% | 20 |
| 188d | L.X2 fills | April 15 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,696 | +$205 +2.7% | 20 |
| 188d | d-flow2 fills | April 15 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,792 | +$131 +3.5% | 20 |
| 188d | GCNO12 fills | April 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,019 | +$40 +1.3% | 20 |
| 189d | mm4ker5 fills | April 15 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,276 | −$249 −2.4% | — |
| 189d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | April 15 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,795 | −$57 −2.0% | — |
| 189d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | April 15 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | +$30 +1.5% | 20 |
| 190d | April 15 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,925 | +$75 +1.5% | 20 | |
| 190d | Shiny-Mark2 fills | April 15 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,710 | −$175 −3.7% | — |
| 190d | DooBieZ2 fills | April 15 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,017 | +$82 +1.6% | 20 |
| 191d | Shiny-Mark5 fills | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,935 | +$383 +4.8% | 20 |
| 191d | Kdjdjd | April 15 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,710 | −$66 −1.0% | — |
| 191d | 0x4773…2289 | April 15 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 191d | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,235 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 191d | Kdjdjd | April 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,729 | +$47 +0.7% | 20 |
| 192d | 0x4773…2289 | April 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 192d | Vladpoutino | April 15 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,838 | −$53 −2.9% | — |
| 192d | April 15 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,445 | −$187 −3.4% | — | |
| 193d | blunderbot | April 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 194d | KrackenSruster2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,057 | +$748 +24% | 20 |
| 195d | April 15 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | −$126 −6.9% | — | |
| 195d | 0xbF4d202382 | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,910 | +$106 +5.5% | 21 |
| 195d | insidero | April 15 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,918 | +$93 +4.8% | 21 |
| 196d | April 15 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,768 | +$105 +5.9% | 21 | |
| 196d | April 15 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,512 | +$162 +6.5% | 20 | |
| 196d | StudentMoney2 fills | April 15 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,730 | −$1,024 −8.0% | — |
| 196d | Deterrance | April 15 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,546 | −$160 −6.3% | — |
| 197d | apple3333 | April 15 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | −$80 −6.8% | — |
| 197d | April 15 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $16,667 | +$1,295 +7.8% | 20 | |
| 197d | April 30 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$965 +19% | 20 | |
| 198d | GUUU23 | April 15 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,614 | −$445 −12% | — |
| 198d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 15 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$434 +14% | 21 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 15 means the market gives it about 0%.