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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $1.53K | in 249d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d | lion449 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,172 | −$25 −1.2% | — |
| 6d | xenonliu12 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $36,386 | +$1,557 +4.3% | 26 |
| 9d |  BlackswanDefi | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellYes7¢ → 6¢ | $1,515 | +$325 +21% | — |
| 20d | Vapid-Zen4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $6,500 | +$157 +2.4% | 25 |
| 34d | yyeeaahh2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,701 | +$135 +5.0% | 27 |
| 37d | iamkingofbay | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,000 | +$32 +1.6% | 25 |
| 44d | kjhdfhj77hfe6TT | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,000 | +$16 +1.6% | 25 |
| 67d | Sunbe | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,034 | −$40 −3.8% | — |
| 67d | Beneficial-Statistic | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,200 | −$46 −3.8% | — |
| 86d | sailg | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $1,609 | +$80 +5.0% | 27 |
| 88d | tms20162 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $6,390 | −$391 −6.1% | — |
| 92d | Beneficial-Statistic | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $1,200 | +$46 +3.8% | 27 |
| 95d | Negligible-Reservation | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $5,460 | −$337 −6.2% | — |
| 96d | deah12 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $8,987 | −$463 −5.2% | — |
| 97d |  smallpig | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $4,773 | −$187 −3.9% | — |
| 100d | Practical-Memo | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,001 | −$30 −3.0% | — |
| 101d | lion449 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $4,200 | +$107 +2.6% | 25 |
| 102d |  J3lcExePrd1KE5M | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $2,419 | −$93 −3.8% | — |
| 110d | jackchen-cs2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $6,000 | +$322 +5.4% | 27 |
| 113d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 95¢ | $2,409 | −$93 −3.8% | — |
| 114d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $2,383 | +$119 +5.0% | 27 |
| 115d |  Aq4ExePrd22Jn | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $4,450 | +$275 +6.2% | 27 |
| 119d | FractalDrift | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $2,000 | +$124 +6.2% | 27 |
| 122d |  realxijinping | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 95¢ | $5,142 | −$443 −8.6% | — |
| 129d |  linsen2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $2,904 | +$214 +7.4% | 28 |
| 144d |  fivefivefive | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,760 | +$130 +7.4% | 28 |
| 154d | Posh-Swimming | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 95¢ | $1,012 | −$87 −8.6% | — |
| 155d | wnio2ki | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 95¢ | $1,448 | −$125 −8.6% | — |
| 156d | wnio2ki | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,465 | +$108 +7.4% | 28 |
| 160d | smallpig | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $4,155 | +$359 +8.6% | 29 |
| 162d | ourdemocracy2 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,701 | +$168 +9.9% | 29 |
| 167d | Imperfect-Council2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyYes15¢ → 6¢ | $3,395 | −$2,109 −62% | 48 |
| 170d | realxijinping | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $3,671 | +$316 +8.6% | 29 |
| 173d | darqtrav | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $3,000 | +$259 +8.6% | 29 |
| 175d | tms2016 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $2,250 | +$166 +7.4% | 28 |
| 175d | Negligible-Reservation | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $5,360 | +$437 +8.2% | 31 |
| 177d |  Anjun2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 95¢ | $10,408 | −$1,142 −11% | — |
| 184d | dissidentdad3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $5,510 | +$526 +9.6% | 29 |
| 189d | fhknm | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $2,458 | +$275 +11% | 30 |
| 190d | J3lcExePrd1KE5M | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $2,237 | +$250 +11% | 30 |
| 201d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 95¢ | $1,700 | −$190 −11% | — |
| 202d | pogb | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 95¢ | $4,300 | −$425 −9.9% | — |
| 202d | muxuebingcheng311 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyYes14¢ → 6¢ | $3,545 | −$2,196 −62% | 49 |
| 205d | Mld | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,141 | +$113 +9.9% | 29 |
wugeyi4,495 shares
hgamezoon8,000 sharesAq4ExePrd22Jn5,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 6%.