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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 265d |  classified2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $28,129 | −$54 −0.2% | — |
| 265d | enrico-vasaio3 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,927 | +$74 +0.5% | 4 |
| 265d |  DEGENKHAN2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,328 | +$14 +0.3% | 4 |
| 265d |  Slowroasted4 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,756 | +$45 +0.2% | 4 |
| 265d |  Noooooooop2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,447 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 265d | payose | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,243 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 265d | ArbitrageTaker2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,718 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 265d | 674447 | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,061 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 265d | 674447 | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,074 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 266d |  Talophex | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,537 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 267d | Dit269783 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,779 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 267d |  ittgnito2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,228 | +$16 +0.4% | 4 |
| 268d | smallppboi | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,104 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 268d | MrMarket | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 269d | hisdhfia2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,006 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 270d | michou55 | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,125 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 270d | b88f69 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,986 | +$68 +0.2% | 4 |
| 270d | valmier | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 270d |  FATMAN | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 270d | 9308703 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,084 | +$24 +0.2% | 4 |
| 270d | c4727 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,613 | +$87 +0.3% | 4 |
| 270d | bf2e8 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,511 | +$82 +0.2% | 4 |
| 271d | e2017 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,943 | +$78 +0.3% | 4 |
| 271d | 6cc84 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,162 | +$38 +0.2% | 4 |
| 271d |  ULYSSES18 | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $11,647 | −$23 −0.2% | — |
| 271d | 6cc85 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $21,028 | −$59 −0.3% | — |
| 271d | c4722 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,991 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 271d | bf2e2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $8,475 | −$26 −0.3% | — |
| 272d |  DFK7 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,582 | +$170 +0.4% | 4 |
| 272d | 8a3e46 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,629 | +$71 +0.3% | 4 |
| 272d |  humbleBaker | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,493 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 272d | 8d147 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,828 | +$96 +0.3% | 4 |
| 272d | 8d148 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $28,859 | −$120 −0.4% | — |
| 272d | 8a3e42 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,421 | −$22 −0.3% | — |
| 272d | 9370983 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $13,452 | −$49 −0.4% | — |
| 273d | keribit8 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $35,306 | −$195 −0.6% | — |
| 273d | Unwelcome-FigNew account | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,991 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 273d |  FrancisSP8 | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,011 | +$54 +0.3% | 4 |
| 273d |  Rasalgethi | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 274d | Cheerful-Solver | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,915 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 274d | keribit2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,976 | +$24 +0.3% | 4 |
| 274d |  TraderMurf | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,972 | −$28 −0.4% | — |
| 274d | 4c82086 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,441 | +$71 +0.3% | 4 |
| 274d | 9370985 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,834 | +$66 +0.3% | 4 |
| 274d | bc725 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,937 | +$63 +0.3% | 4 |
| 274d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b047 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $62,351 | +$304 +0.5% | 4 |
| 274d | bc724 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $13,446 | −$54 −0.4% | — |
| 275d |  web3player4 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,717 | +$89 +0.3% | 4 |
| 275d | a50224 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $13,689 | −$58 −0.4% | — |
| 275d | eb926 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $21,951 | −$93 −0.4% | — |
| 275d | ourdemocracy3 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,254 | −$21 −0.4% | — |
| 275d |  Goopster | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,593 | +$110 +0.3% | 4 |
| 275d | DFK | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $23,561 | −$95 −0.4% | — |
| 275d | luna8862 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,875 | −$20 −0.4% | — |
| 275d | luna886 | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,880 | +$15 +0.3% | 4 |
| 275d | eb925 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,899 | +$101 +0.3% | 4 |
| 275d | a50223 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,964 | +$36 +0.3% | 4 |
| 276d | 442e6 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $21,895 | −$105 −0.5% | — |
| 276d | 442e3 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,961 | +$39 +0.4% | 4 |
| 276d |  GobiDesertCanoePro2 fills | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,932 | −$135 −0.7% | — |
ClownPagliacci1,000 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory. Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless. Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.