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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 100% | +2 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 100% | +1 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | — | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 7 | 0% | −3 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 24 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 344d | Gmoney123 | November 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,865 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | Canine-DarknessNew account | November 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,047 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 344d |  Euan | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $35,324 | +$35 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | Canine-DarknessNew account | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,046 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | Gucci777 | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,930 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d |  Barboncino | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,516 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d |  369market4 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,842 | +$17 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | dnlppvc | November 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,443 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 344d |  cynical-reason | November 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,631 | +$31 +0.8% | 4 |
| 344d | cigarettes12 fills | November 15 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $30,707 | +$1,821 +5.9% | 4 |
| 344d | StoicMule | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,174 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | trerira2 fills | November 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,319 | +$106 +2.4% | 4 |
| 344d |  LevonS | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d |  nnimrodd2 fills | November 15 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $12,405 | −$603 −4.9% | — |
| 344d | Lena. | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,725 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | Lena. | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,177 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | deeznuts11 | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,353 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 344d |  Cone2 | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,466 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | Dead-Skylightt4 fills | November 15 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $11,166 | +$359 +3.2% | 4 |
| 344d | RIU83 fills | November 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,500 | +$215 +1.9% | 4 |
| 344d | lordedward2 fills | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,491 | −$17 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | curveswap | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,089 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | Alder | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 344d | 369market4 fills | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,063 | +$23 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | Alder | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,191 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d |  GoldmanSachs | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,691 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 344d |  0xdc3E831cad2 fills | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,385 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 344d |  Schizoaffective.On.Acid8 fills | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $35,380 | +$141 +0.4% | 4 |
| 344d | fanzong1024 | November 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,783 | −$35 −0.4% | — |
| 344d | ensco | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,196 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 344d |  praktor | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $16,844 | −$51 −0.3% | — |
| 344d | Schizoaffective.On.Acid2 fills | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $143,635 | +$148 +0.1% | 4 |
| 344d | Schizoaffective.On.Acid2 fills | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,944 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 344d |  TeemuPukki | November 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,427 | −$13 −0.9% | — |
| 344d | GondorCallsForAid | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,468 | +$17 +0.2% | 4 |
| 344d | Dapper-Grandfather | November 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,423 | −$74 −1.0% | — |
| 344d | GondorCallsForAid | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,190 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 344d | Dapper-Grandfather | November 30 | SellYes100¢ | $8,659 | −$44 −0.5% | — |
| 344d | fuelsiege | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,407 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 344d |  Debosnys2 fills | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,817 | −$22 −0.3% | — |
| 344d | Schizoaffective.On.Acid | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,426 | +$47 +0.2% | 4 |
| 344d | Debosnys5 fills | November 15 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $28,987 | −$752 −2.6% | — |
| 344d | canupdatethislater | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,206 | −$21 −0.5% | — |
| 344d | gumsii2 fills | November 15 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,673 | −$906 −19% | — |
| 344d |  Car | January 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,547 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | Car2 fills | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,860 | −$118 −0.5% | — |
| 344d | Car | November 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,742 | −$52 −0.9% | — |
| 344d | 0xca28…01e8 | November 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,343 | −$26 −1.1% | — |
| 344d | Debosnys2 fills | January 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,989 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | ToyodaMan | November 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | −$12 −1.2% | — |
| 344d | zykl5959 | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,246 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 |
| 344d |  blkp | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,148 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | BTCGOOSE | November 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,778 | −$47 −0.4% | — |
| 344d | allen111 | November 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,970 | +$30 +0.3% | 4 |
| 344d |  scottilicious6 fills | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $44,609 | −$79 −0.2% | — |
| 344d |  ScottyNooo3 fills | November 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,565 | −$52 −0.7% | — |
| 344d |  MrNFT | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,018 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | Larry88 | November 15 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,740 | +$9 +0.5% | 4 |
| 344d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,978 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 344d |  0x2jsdkvfhjaklsdfnkjwebnksdnwerewe5 fills | November 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $53,850 | −$309 −0.6% | — |
Mickie2secquickie17 shares
BidenVoter17,851 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 15 means the market gives it about 100%.