| OpenAI announces a full training pause in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 130 | 91¢ → 93¢ | $121 | +$3 +2.2% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 22 | 45¢ → 55¢ | $12 | +$2 +22% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 20 | 47¢ → 50¢ | $10 | +$0 +5.3% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 93¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 22 | 47¢ → 38¢ | $8 | −$2 −20% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 20 | 40¢ → 41¢ | $8 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 108 | 3¢ → 5¢ | $5 | +$2 +56% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 40 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 536 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 644 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 80 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$65 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 240 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 558 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,487 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$63 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 383 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 263 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 6 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
