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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 0% | −25 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +11 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 8d |
| October 15 | 100% | +29 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 13 | 100% | +58 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 30 | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 38d |
| August 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 14 | 100% | +32 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 16 | 100% | +30 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 10 | 0% | −3 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 23 | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 7h |
| October 12 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 5 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 9 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 2 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d | laolumanjuuma | October 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,258 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d |  CosmicCedar | October 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,106 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 10d | CosmicCedar | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,258 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d | melonmanm3 fills | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,078 | +$49 +0.3% | 20 |
| 10d | laolumanjuuma | October 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,357 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d | laolumanjuuma | October 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,761 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d | mianbaoxiaoziuma | October 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,945 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d | mianbaoxiaoziuma | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,963 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d | laolumanjuuma | October 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,319 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d | mianbaoxiaoziuma | October 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,761 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d |  Giorgio2 | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 10d | melonmanm | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,264 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 10d | melonmanm | October 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,930 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 10d |  tja | October 13 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$39 +3.7% | 21 |
| 10d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | October 16 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | +$45 +3.1% | 20 |
| 10d | 0x67ba…fafe | October 13 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,023 | +$430 +11% | 23 |
| 10d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | October 13 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$113 +11% | 23 |
| 10d | Fderer | October 15 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,064 | +$309 +7.6% | 21 |
| 10d |  Zhangmuzhiholy | October 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,594 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 10d |  Rumpelstiltskin | October 13 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,221 | +$633 +28% | 24 |
| 10d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | October 13 | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | −$1,087 −74% | — |
| 11d | hidv | October 13 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,893 | +$778 +27% | 24 |
| 11d | mousta | October 13 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | +$221 +21% | 23 |
| 11d | 0x9941e...5C52f7B | October 23 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | −$245 −22% | — |
| 11d | 0x9941e...5C52f7B | October 23 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,242 | +$237 +19% | 20 |
| 11d | Trained-Notion | October 14 | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $4,856 | −$4,856 −100% | 22 |
| 11d | Trained-Notion | October 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$116 +11% | 20 |
| 12d | dedidanc2 fills | October 15 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $2,523 | −$2,523 −100% | 22 |
| 12d | ilovehistamines | October 14 | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$1,358 +116% | 22 |
| 12d | Trained-Notion | October 13 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 25 |
| 13d |  HowToBasic | October 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 13d | Neumann97 | October 31 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | −$151 −11% | — |
| 14d | Batundi | October 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,471 | +$481 +11% | 20 |
| 14d | JokerTheClown | October 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,276 | +$149 +12% | 20 |
| 14d |  kl1v | October 15 | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $1,443 | −$1,443 −100% | 22 |
| 15d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | October 15 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,555 | −$1,104 −43% | — |
| 15d | kl1v3 fills | October 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,049 | +$559 +11% | 20 |
| 15d | Contentious-Dinnerdate2 fills | October 15 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,987 | +$1,060 +35% | 20 |
| 16d |  lamyk | October 15 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | −$187 −16% | — |
| 17d | Agile-Catamaran | October 15 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,495 | +$447 +30% | 20 |
| 17d | dedidanc | October 31 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$203 −17% | — |
| 17d | hell0pia | October 15 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,033 | +$957 +47% | 20 |
| 17d |  The-Joker | October 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,248 | +$406 +18% | 20 |
| 18d | dedidanc | October 31 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $5,271 | +$1,885 +36% | 20 |
| 18d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | October 31 | SellNo32¢ → 0¢ | $3,786 | +$3,786 +100% | — |
| 18d | Parz1vaI2 fills | October 15 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $6,162 | +$5,906 +96% | 20 |
| 18d | kezgod | October 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$167 +11% | 20 |
| 19d | grinder1011 | October 15 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$461 +44% | 20 |
| 19d | xiaojiren | October 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$116 +11% | 20 |
| 20d | Parz1vaI | October 15 | SellNo53¢ → 0¢ | $1,673 | +$1,673 +100% | — |
| 20d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | October 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,403 | +$249 +18% | 20 |
| 22d | thoodr | November 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$52 +4.4% | 20 |
| 22d | Wary-Haversack-Size | September 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 23d | Stale-Gap | September 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,550 | −$55 −3.6% | — |
| 23d | 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | September 30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,288 | +$156 +3.6% | 21 |
| 23d | Rocky0420 | September 30 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,010 | −$148 −7.4% | — |
| 23d | Tremirorot | September 30 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$392 −29% | — |
| 23d | Faelara1337 | September 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,605 | +$140 +8.7% | 22 |
| 23d | dedidanc3 fills | September 30 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $5,169 | +$1,805 +35% | 27 |
| 23d | The-Joker | September 30 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | +$521 +42% | 28 |
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e058,079 shares
seal76,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 0%.