rar111

Polymarket wallet 0x1bb734a860b0ad4f7e0ad58d5a884030a665543b · on Polymarket since Jan 14, 2026 · also shown as Awful-Tangerine

Open on Polymarket ↗

Positions now worth: $537
All-time profit: +$639
Volume traded: $117K
All-time rank: #102,649
Markets traded: 306
Recent hit rate: 72%36 of last 50 closed

Open positions

45 markets · $537

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?Ends in 8d	No	151	82¢ → 98¢	$148	+$24 +20%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?Ends in 69d	Yes	100	92¢ → 96¢	$96	+$4 +4.2%
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 11d	Yes	60	95¢ → 99¢	$59	+$2 +4.4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d	Yes	689	7¢ → 8¢	$52	+$3 +7.1%
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?Ends in 4d	No	68	75¢ → 74¢	$50	−$1 −2.2%
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?Ends in 8d	Yes	90	7¢ → 27¢	$24	+$18 +312%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October?Ends in 8d	No	20	71¢ → 99¢	$20	+$6 +39%
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% in October?Ends in 8d	No	20	87¢ → 86¢	$17	−$0 −1.1%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d	Yes	41	13¢ → 21¢	$8	+$3 +61%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Ends in 69d	Yes	10	23¢ → 70¢	$7	+$5 +211%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027?Ends in 434d	Yes	71	1¢ → 10¢	$7	+$7 +1860%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2027?Ends in 434d	Yes	76	1¢ → 9¢	$7	+$7 +1730%
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 54d	Yes	30	14¢ → 21¢	$6	+$2 +50%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?Ends in 8d	No	10	80¢ → 60¢	$6	−$2 −25%
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in October?Ends in 8d	Yes	140	4¢ → 4¢	$5	−$0 −3.8%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 4d	Yes	5,260	<1¢ → <1¢	$5	+$0 +0.0%
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Ends in 68d	Yes	10	78¢ → 39¢	$4	−$4 −50%
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?Ends in 41d	Yes	20	11¢ → 12¢	$2	+$0 +4.5%
Senate control favorite on November 2?Ends in 10d	Republican Party	100	3¢ → 2¢	$2	−$1 −27%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?Ends in 68d	Yes	30	6¢ → 7¢	$2	+$0 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?Ends in 8d	No	2	91¢ → 98¢	$2	+$0 +7.0%
Plague pandemic in 2026?Ends in 69d	Yes	50	4¢ → 2¢	$1	−$1 −50%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?Ends in 69d	Yes	25	7¢ → 4¢	$1	−$1 −49%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d	Yes	63	13¢ → 1¢	$1	−$8 −90%
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?Ends in 96d	Yes	15	6¢ → 5¢	$1	−$0 −17%
Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?Ends in 107d	Yes	11	5¢ → 7¢	$1	+$0 +31%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Ends in 69d	No	5	7¢ → 14¢	$1	+$0 +100%
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Ends in 3d	Hike 25 bps	31	3¢ → 2¢	$1	−$0 −22%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2027?Ends in 434d	Yes	5	3¢ → 5¢	$0	+$0 +82%
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 4d	Yes	303	<1¢ → <1¢	$0	−$1 −86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 11?Settled - ready to redeem	No	25	89¢ → 0¢	$0	−$22 −100%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.07% in September?Settled - ready to redeem	No	10	21¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 16?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	20	7¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	10	39¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
Democratic Senate odds 64%+ on October 2?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	30	21¢ → 0¢	$0	−$6 −100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	10	31¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in September?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	25	5¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	19	37¢ → 0¢	$0	−$7 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	20	5¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 6?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	40	29¢ → 0¢	$0	−$12 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 9?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	10	12¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	2	56¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 12?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	5	11¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	56	3¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in September?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	10	1¢ → 0¢	$0	−$0 −100%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
1h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes7¢	$13
1h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes7¢	$1
1h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes7¢	$34
2h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes7¢	$0
3h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	SellYes8¢	$25
3h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes7¢	$22
3h	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	BuyNo71¢	$20
4h	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	BuyNo7¢	$0
4h	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	BuyYes92¢	$92
5h	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
6h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	SellYes9¢	$81
6h	No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	BuyHike 25 bps3¢	$1
6h	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes8¢	$72
6h	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	SellYes93¢	$93
6h	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	BuyYes90¢	$0
8h	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?	SellNo95¢	$8
11h	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in October?	SellNo97¢	$48
22h	Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?	BuyYes3¢	$0
22h	Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?	BuyYes3¢	$0
1d	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?	BuyYes6¢	$2
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	BuyYes88¢	$112
1d	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?	BuyYes89¢	$151
1d	Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	SellNo42¢	$58
1d	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.89% in October?	BuyYes97¢	$58
1d	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.89% in October?	BuyYes97¢	$39
1d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?	BuyYes86¢	$4
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	BuyYes52¢	$3
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% in October?	SellNo71¢	$50
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in October?	BuyYes89¢	$4
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	BuyYes53¢	$11
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in October?	SellNo94¢	$89
1d	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% in October?	SellYes43¢	$9
1d	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	BuyNo80¢	$8
1d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.35% in October?	BuyYes80¢	$4
1d	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.35% in October?	SellNo16¢	$3
1d	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$1
1d	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in October?	SellNo26¢	$5
1d	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.89% in October?	BuyYes76¢	$38
1d	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$1
1d	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$1
1d	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	SellNo83¢	$12
1d	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$1
1d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?	BuyYes86¢	$17
1d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?	BuyYes87¢	$17
1d	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.40% in October?	BuyYes90¢	$14
1d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	SellIndia50¢	$3
1d	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	BuyIndia25¢	$1
1d	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes<1¢	$0
1d	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2027?	BuyYes1¢	$0
1d	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027?	BuyYes1¢	$0
1d	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2027?	BuyYes1¢	$0
1d	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027?	BuyYes1¢	$0
1d	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2027?	BuyYes1¢	$0
1d	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027?	BuyYes1¢	$0

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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