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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 96 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 125 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 204 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 124 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Apple acquire Mistral by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 86 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 273 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bybit insolvent before April?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 516 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 83 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| OpenAI social app in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29d | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | SellYes2¢ | $2 |
| 232d | GPT-5.4 released by March 5? | BuyYes81¢ | $150 |
| 247d | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | SellYes65¢ | $116 |
| 262d | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | BuyYes21¢ | $15 |
| 262d | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | BuyYes6¢ | $10 |
| 426d | OpenAI social app in 2025? | BuyNo47¢ | $5 |
| 426d | Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31? | BuyNo14¢ | $5 |
| 426d | Will Apple acquire Mistral by September 30? | BuyYes6¢ | $5 |
| 607d | Bybit insolvent before April? | BuyYes4¢ | $20 |
| 607d | Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election? | BuyYes5¢ | $10 |
| 607d | Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | BuyYes2¢ | $5 |
| 607d | Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | BuyNo6¢ | $5 |
| 607d | Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion? | BuyNo5¢ | $5 |
| 607d | Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | BuyYes8¢ | $10 |
| 607d | Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election? | BuyYes8¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 4 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.