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Polymarket wallet 0xbf686471b81a764cda4b244d7bc4f53cabc1c77a · on Polymarket since Oct 9, 2024 · also shown as Reasonable-Runway
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,151 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will any Democratic Senator vote to confirm RFK Jr?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 35 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 632d | Will any Democratic Senator vote to confirm RFK Jr? | BuyYes20¢ | $3 |
| 632d | Will any Democratic Senator vote to confirm RFK Jr? | BuyYes20¢ | $4 |
| 634d | Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | BuyYes3¢ | $30 |
| 724d | Will Trump win 2 swing states? | BuyYes7¢ | $10 |
| 724d | Will Trump win 5 swing states? | BuyYes18¢ | $10 |
| 724d | Will Trump win 3 swing states? | BuyYes9¢ | $10 |
| 724d | Will Trump win 4 swing states? | BuyYes12¢ | $10 |
| 724d | Trump wins every swing state? | BuyNo71¢ | $10 |
| 724d | Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | BuyYes33¢ | $10 |
| 737d | Will Kamala say "opportunity" 3 or more times during Fox News interview? | BuyYes3¢ | $1 |
| 744d | Will Milton make landfall as a category 4? | BuyYes3¢ | $2 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 8 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.