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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 76% | 0 pts | +12 pts | 76¢ · 76¢ (<1¢) | $296K | in 3d |
| Lamine Yamal | 15% | −1 pts | −12 pts | 15¢ · 15¢ (<1¢) | $155K | in 3d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 7% | +2 pts | +3 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | $290K | in 3d |
| Lionel Messi | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $136K | in 3d |
| Rodri | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $187K | in 3d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $189K | in 3d |
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $140K | in 3d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $121K | in 3d |
| Erling Haaland | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $133K | in 3d |
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Michael Olise | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $72K | in 3d |
| Declan Rice | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $5.05 | in 3d |
| Vitinha | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $11.6K | in 3d |
| Achraf Hakimi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $10K | in 3d |
| Luis Diaz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Lautaro Martinez | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Pau Cubarsi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $11K | in 3d |
| Gavi | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Marc Cucurella | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Gabriel Magalhães | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Sadio Mané | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Marquinhos | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Nuno Mendes | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| João Neves | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Willian Pacho | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Julián Quiñones | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| William Saliba | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Ferran Torres | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| Dayot Upamecano | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 3d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59m | JBucketz3 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes75¢ → 76¢ | $5,572 | +$77 +1.4% | 7 |
| 59m | e46m37 fills | Fabian Ruiz | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,035 | −$4 −0.1% | 4 |
| 59m | e46m35 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo96¢ → 93¢ | $5,635 | −$175 −3.1% | 4 |
| 59m | e46m36 fills | Rodri | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,906 | −$1 −0.0% | 4 |
| 59m |  JustClickeverywhere6 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo98¢ | $6,859 | +$62 +0.9% | 4 |
| 59m | JustClickeverywhere7 fills | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,163 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1h | hereIamen | Harry Kane | SellYes76¢ | $1,366 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | AZwater | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,960 | −$10 −0.1% | 4 |
| 2h | zerone777 | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo93¢ | $2,035 | −$2 −0.1% | 5 |
| 5h | 0F6221 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo95¢ → 93¢ | $160,355 | −$4,240 −2.6% | 8 |
| 5h |  Detbet | Lionel Messi | SellNo98¢ | $1,590 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 9h | 0B06 | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $1,270 | +$13 +1.0% | 5 |
| 11h |  MajorMalfunction2 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo82¢ → 85¢ | $10,312 | +$336 +3.3% | 8 |
| 13h |  bisouss17 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes73¢ → 76¢ | $43,886 | +$1,822 +4.2% | 15 |
| 17h | ssm86-X2p9 | Lionel Messi | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $2,000 | −$3 −0.2% | 4 |
| 19h | owenliang6663 fills | Harry Kane | SellYes75¢ → 76¢ | $69,232 | −$1,543 −2.2% | — |
| 20h | omnibus-424779 | Harry Kane | SellYes75¢ → 76¢ | $11,603 | −$279 −2.4% | — |
| 20h |  urhfrhchj123123 | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo93¢ | $24,585 | −$208 −0.8% | 6 |
| 20h | omnibus-4247794 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes75¢ → 76¢ | $11,677 | +$205 +1.8% | 8 |
| 20h | StarryPath | Harry Kane | BuyNo26¢ → 24¢ | $2,746 | −$219 −8.0% | 7 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg7 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo98¢ | $33,840 | +$71 +0.2% | 5 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg4 fills | Harry Kane | BuyNo25¢ → 24¢ | $6,216 | −$405 −6.5% | 8 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg4 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $18,001 | +$290 +1.6% | 10 |
| 20h | aventadorsvr2 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes9¢ → 7¢ | $5,441 | −$773 −14% | 8 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg | Fabian Ruiz | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,143 | −$5 −0.1% | 4 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg7 fills | Rodri | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,315 | +$10 +0.0% | 4 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg7 fills | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,374 | −$14 −0.0% | 4 |
| 20h | Bigggggggg | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,143 | $0 0.0% | 4 |
| 21h | 0xc549jk8NgV37 | Harry Kane | BuyYes77¢ → 76¢ | $2,585 | −$27 −1.1% | 6 |
| 22h | elonreevemusk | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes7¢ | $1,064 | +$12 +1.1% | 6 |
| 22h | 0x53bb…c852 | Harry Kane | SellYes76¢ | $1,434 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 23h | hallowin5 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes72¢ → 76¢ | $5,100 | +$316 +6.2% | 5 |
| 23h | Lexington2 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo95¢ → 93¢ | $2,535 | −$64 −2.5% | 4 |
| 23h | SPLPB | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $3,469 | +$47 +1.3% | 6 |
| 1d | Bogdanreay | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes17¢ → 15¢ | $1,000 | −$121 −12% | 7 |
| 1d | purplegatto3 fills | Harry Kane | BuyYes75¢ → 76¢ | $8,265 | +$159 +1.9% | 8 |
| 1d | e46m33 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $3,005 | +$46 +1.5% | 6 |
| 1d | kaxel78 | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $1,195 | +$18 +1.5% | 5 |
| 1d | e46m311 fills | Lionel Messi | BuyNo98¢ | $12,820 | +$76 +0.6% | 5 |
| 1d | e46m36 fills | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,032 | +$0 +0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | kaxel78 | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo94¢ → 93¢ | $1,351 | −$24 −1.8% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere11 fills | Fabian Ruiz | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,085 | −$5 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere9 fills | Rodri | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,574 | +$2 +0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | e46m38 fills | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,332 | −$2 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere7 fills | Kylian Mbappé | BuyNo96¢ → 93¢ | $7,899 | −$262 −3.3% | 4 |
| 1d |  balthazar | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,184 | +$19 +1.6% | 5 |
| 1d | LeBigGNGL | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes7¢ | $1,608 | +$65 +4.1% | 6 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere9 fills | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,594 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1d | JustClickeverywhere | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,002 | +$15 +1.5% | 5 |
| 1d | hereIamen | Harry Kane | BuyYes77¢ → 76¢ | $1,382 | −$16 −1.1% | 6 |
| 1d | Afuckingbot | Harry Kane | SellYes77¢ → 76¢ | $1,005 | +$6 +0.6% | — |
| 1d | Lufelola | Harry Kane | BuyYes77¢ → 76¢ | $1,003 | −$3 −0.3% | 6 |
| 1d | Mutinista | Harry Kane | BuyYes77¢ → 76¢ | $3,500 | −$26 −0.7% | 6 |
| 1d |  noteskay | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes17¢ → 15¢ | $1,945 | −$200 −10% | 7 |
| 1d | PASOOWW | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes7¢ | $1,198 | +$19 +1.6% | 6 |
| 1d | thisisnotsatoshi | Lionel Messi | BuyNo98¢ | $1,077 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 1d | Jimizqui12 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes18¢ → 15¢ | $2,861 | −$422 −15% | 7 |
| 1d | Jimizqui1 | Harry Kane | SellYes75¢ → 76¢ | $1,066 | −$12 −1.1% | — |
| 1d | grinder1011 | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $1,420 | +$21 +1.5% | 6 |
| 1d | Jimizqui1 | Lamine Yamal | SellYes17¢ → 15¢ | $1,421 | +$116 +8.2% | — |
bisouss252,919 shares
TimeTraveler21,929 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 76¢ for Harry Kane means the market gives it about 76%.