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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 47% | −2 pts | −9 pts | 46¢ · 48¢ (2¢) | $919 | in 69d |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 29% | +2 pts | +1 pts | 27¢ · 31¢ (4¢) | $1.33K | in 69d |
| Lecornu - France PM | 5% | — | +1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $30 | in 69d |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 4% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $95 | in 69d |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 2% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $5.63K | in 69d |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 2% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $630 | in 69d |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 2% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $457 | in 69d |
| Macron - France President | 1% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $30 | in 69d |
| Trump - USA President | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $103 | in 69d |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $75.5 | in 69d |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $878 | in 69d |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $4.61K | in 69d |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $218 | in 69d |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $30 | in 69d |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $355 | in 69d |
| Putin - Russia President | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $65 | in 69d |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | <1% | — | −1 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $640 | in 69d |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $292 | in 69d |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $65 | in 69d |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $69.4 | in 69d |
| Milei - Argentina President | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $30 | in 69d |
| Newsom - California Governor | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $30 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | tuomao2 fills | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellYes33¢ → 29¢ | $6,052 | +$734 +12% | — |
| 1d | moli1 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo67¢ → 71¢ | $2,019 | −$121 −6.0% | — |
| 1d | kaoya | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo67¢ → 71¢ | $8,618 | −$514 −6.0% | — |
| 1d | tiya1 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo67¢ → 71¢ | $8,237 | −$492 −6.0% | — |
| 2d | jiezhi2 fills | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes33¢ → 29¢ | $8,301 | −$1,006 −12% | 31 |
| 2d | tuomao2 fills | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes33¢ → 29¢ | $6,052 | −$734 −12% | 30 |
| 3d | bimaw | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo73¢ → 71¢ | $8,468 | +$232 +2.7% | — |
| 3d | liusha | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo73¢ → 71¢ | $6,862 | +$188 +2.7% | — |
| 3d | dandhe | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo73¢ → 71¢ | $6,935 | +$190 +2.7% | — |
| 4d | shunfer | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes28¢ → 29¢ | $2,800 | +$100 +3.6% | 28 |
| 4d | qianliy2 fills | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes28¢ → 29¢ | $5,432 | +$194 +3.6% | 31 |
| 9d | sodas | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo70¢ → 71¢ | $3,173 | −$45 −1.4% | — |
| 9d | subjec | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo70¢ → 71¢ | $9,985 | −$143 −1.4% | — |
| 9d | coffeb | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo70¢ → 71¢ | $7,779 | −$111 −1.4% | — |
| 9d | nvwa | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo70¢ → 71¢ | $2,671 | −$38 −1.4% | — |
| 10d | subjec | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo68¢ → 71¢ | $9,700 | +$428 +4.4% | 24 |
| 10d | sodas | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo68¢ → 71¢ | $3,082 | +$136 +4.4% | 24 |
| 10d | nvwa | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo68¢ → 71¢ | $2,594 | +$114 +4.4% | 24 |
| 10d | coffeb | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo68¢ → 71¢ | $7,557 | +$333 +4.4% | 24 |
| 12d | hfv | None before 2027 | SellNo51¢ → 53¢ | $1,436 | −$42 −2.9% | — |
| 13d | buoys5 fills | None before 2027 | BuyYes36¢ → 47¢ | $9,166 | +$2,705 +30% | 30 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Lecornu - France PM | BuyNo98¢ → 95¢ | $1,178 | −$26 −2.2% | 6 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Merz - German Chancellor | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,324 | −$9 −0.7% | 5 |
| 19d | Joaks | Sánchez - Spanish PM | BuyYes28¢ → 4¢ | $1,565 | −$1,339 −86% | 26 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,330 | −$3 −0.2% | 4 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Abbas - President of Palestine | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,320 | −$11 −0.8% | 5 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Lula da Silva - Brazil President | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,330 | −$3 −0.2% | 4 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,329 | +$0 +0.0% | 4 |
| 19d | Bigggggggg | Putin - Russia President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,330 | −$1 −0.1% | 4 |
| 21d | buoys3 fills | None before 2027 | SellYes34¢ → 47¢ | $5,440 | −$2,016 −37% | — |
| 24d |  paddaa | None before 2027 | BuyNo64¢ → 53¢ | $1,100 | −$193 −18% | 24 |
| 24d | paddaa2 fills | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo68¢ → 71¢ | $4,100 | +$211 +5.1% | 24 |
| 31d | lijing-2132 fills | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellYes35¢ → 29¢ | $3,862 | +$701 +18% | — |
| 32d | nverg | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo62¢ → 71¢ | $6,014 | −$873 −15% | — |
| 32d | niumow | Netanyahu - Israel PM | SellNo62¢ → 71¢ | $6,634 | −$963 −15% | — |
| 32d | lijing-213 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes37¢ → 29¢ | $4,033 | −$872 −22% | 27 |
| 32d | zhizhuj | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyNo64¢ → 71¢ | $6,976 | +$763 +11% | 24 |
| 32d | taiyizh | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes37¢ → 29¢ | $3,589 | −$776 −22% | 27 |
| 33d | buoys | Netanyahu - Israel PM | BuyYes32¢ → 29¢ | $1,321 | −$106 −8.0% | 25 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Erdoğan - Türkiye President | BuyNo100¢ | $1,066 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | BuyNo99¢ | $2,428 | +$9 +0.4% | 5 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | BuyNo>99¢ → 98¢ | $1,996 | −$44 −2.2% | 4 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Putin - Russia President | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,201 | −$1 −0.1% | 4 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Trump - USA President | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,993 | −$14 −0.7% | 4 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Macron - France President | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $2,316 | −$26 −1.1% | 4 |
| 35d | QMG-CORE | Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | BuyNo99¢ | $1,709 | +$9 +0.5% | 5 |
| 39d | flawfence3 fills | None before 2027 | BuyNo54¢ → 53¢ | $4,937 | −$99 −2.0% | 24 |
| 39d | paddaa | None before 2027 | BuyYes35¢ → 47¢ | $1,000 | +$342 +34% | 24 |
| 54d | flawfence | None before 2027 | SellNo71¢ → 53¢ | $2,019 | +$509 +25% | — |
| 112d |  vinii | Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | BuyNo85¢ → 99¢ | $1,739 | +$295 +17% | 14 |
Haradwaith811 sharesThis market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 47¢ for None before 2027 means the market gives it about 47%.