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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No election before 2027 | 96% | — | 0 pts | 94¢ · 97¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Waddani | 3% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 159d |
| Justice and Welfare (UCID) | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 159d |
| Kulmiye | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 159d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120d |  FrozenParasite | No election before 2027 | SellYes89¢ → 96¢ | $4,450 | −$345 −7.8% | — |
| 126d | Laurenman | No election before 2027 | SellYes89¢ → 96¢ | $1,335 | −$103 −7.8% | — |
| 127d | Laurenman | No election before 2027 | BuyYes89¢ → 96¢ | $1,335 | +$103 +7.8% | 10 |
| 127d | FrozenParasite2 fills | No election before 2027 | BuyYes85¢ → 96¢ | $5,837 | +$723 +12% | 10 |
| 127d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389352 fills | No election before 2027 | BuyYes87¢ → 96¢ | $14,478 | +$1,481 +10% | 10 |
| 127d | TahiaDjazair | No election before 2027 | BuyYes87¢ → 96¢ | $5,948 | +$608 +10% | 10 |
| 127d |  nicoco89 | No election before 2027 | BuyYes87¢ → 96¢ | $1,512 | +$155 +10% | 10 |
nicoco893,618 shares
RememberAmalek348 shares
2B9S153 shares
Dr.PNL116 sharesParliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 96¢ for No election before 2027 means the market gives it about 96%.