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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 0% | 0 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | −4 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 12 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 10 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 8 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 185d | Danieljay | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,079 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | Xaci | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,752 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 185d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,968 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 185d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,689 | +$59 +0.2% | 20 |
| 185d | alienreal2 fills | April 21 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $21,642 | +$666 +3.1% | 20 |
| 185d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | April 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,589 | +$217 +2.5% | 20 |
| 185d | Xaci | April 21 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,327 | +$74 +3.2% | 20 |
| 185d | Eatpraylove | April 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,043 | +$75 +2.5% | 20 |
| 185d | 83CAAA | April 21 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$204 +2.9% | 20 |
| 185d | Creative-Chin | April 21 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,545 | −$80 −3.1% | — |
| 185d | SplendidAmadeus3 fills | April 21 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,397 | +$380 +4.0% | 20 |
| 185d |  skittle | April 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,989 | +$82 +1.2% | 20 |
| 185d | worldclassdegen | April 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,882 | +$38 +2.0% | 20 |
| 185d |  tetrase | April 21 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,031 | +$63 +3.1% | 20 |
| 185d |  Car | April 21 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,579 | +$421 +4.4% | 20 |
| 185d |  Valen9 | April 21 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $10,262 | −$1,127 −11% | — |
| 185d | worldclassdegen2 fills | April 21 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,371 | −$329 −9.8% | — |
| 186d | Creative-Chin | April 21 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,312 | +$312 +14% | 20 |
| 186d | Danieljay | April 21 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$281 +16% | 20 |
| 186d | alienreal2 fills | April 21 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $12,265 | −$2,065 −17% | — |
| 186d | Skinny-Class3 fills | April 21 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $6,367 | −$1,633 −26% | — |
| 186d | GCNO1 | April 21 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,181 | −$107 −4.9% | — |
| 186d | GCNO12 fills | April 21 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,649 | +$348 +13% | 22 |
| 186d | Huludubu2 fills | April 21 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,123 | +$294 +5.7% | 20 |
| 186d | skysachs8 | April 21 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,661 | −$203 −5.5% | — |
| 186d |  AllByMyseIf2 fills | April 21 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $11,186 | +$1,225 +11% | 23 |
| 187d |  GrokEnjoyer | April 21 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$88 +8.7% | 22 |
| 187d | LearnSlowly111 | April 21 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,483 | −$241 −16% | — |
| 187d | Cheremsha | April 21 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $3,986 | +$623 +16% | 24 |
| 187d | 83CAAA | April 21 | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $2,313 | −$1,051 −45% | — |
| 187d | SplendidAmadeus2 fills | April 21 | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,528 | −$972 −38% | — |
| 188d | shiq | April 21 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | −$403 −19% | — |
| 188d | KrackenSruster4 fills | April 21 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $7,075 | +$2,821 +40% | 20 |
| 188d | 95de | April 21 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,576 | +$346 +22% | 23 |
| 188d | 95de | April 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 188d | shiq | April 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,860 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 188d | Kdjdjd | April 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,092 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 188d | Huludubu2 fills | April 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,109 | +$82 +1.0% | 20 |
| 188d |  NotBakerMcKenzie2 fills | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $58,613 | −$330 −0.6% | — |
| 188d | anon.1980.1233 fills | April 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,468 | +$172 +1.3% | 20 |
| 188d | tetrase2 fills | April 18 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,705 | +$199 +5.4% | 20 |
| 188d | VvVvV | April 18 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$51 +2.0% | 20 |
| 189d | worldclassdegen | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,527 | −$138 −1.4% | — |
| 189d |  Warren-Buffett | April 21 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,381 | −$146 −11% | — |
| 189d |  CongMingLabs | April 21 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $9,453 | −$860 −9.1% | — |
| 189d | M2sx92kljs423 fills | April 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,848 | −$33 −0.5% | — |
| 189d | CongMingLabs | April 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $64,580 | −$259 −0.4% | — |
| 189d | jbr | April 21 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,990 | +$510 +6.4% | 21 |
| 189d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | April 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,705 | +$33 +0.3% | 20 |
| 189d | alienreal4 fills | April 18 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $7,002 | +$843 +12% | 21 |
| 189d | NotBakerMcKenzie | April 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,688 | +$96 +0.8% | 20 |
| 189d |  HoldenBloodfeast | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,967 | −$33 −1.1% | — |
| 190d |  Fuentes31 | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,501 | −$17 −1.1% | — |
| 190d | blunderbot | April 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,503 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 190d |  JohanTheWise | April 21 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | −$100 −7.5% | — |
| 190d | kekw | April 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,850 | +$150 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d | Huludubu | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,222 | −$69 −1.1% | — |
| 190d | k1ze5pl | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,015 | −$24 −0.8% | — |
| 190d |  cambridgeisaac | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,850 | −$36 −0.9% | — |
| 190d | KrackenSruster | April 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,629 | −$54 −1.0% | — |
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 18 means the market gives it about 0%.