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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billie Eilish | 3% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 68d |
| Doja Cat | 23% | +9 pts | +10 pts | 3¢ · 43¢ (40¢) | — | in 68d |
| Playboi Carti | 6% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 8¢ (4¢) | — | in 68d |
| Frank Ocean | 8% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 6¢ · 9¢ (3¢) | — | in 68d |
| Future | 12% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 21¢ (19¢) | — | in 68d |
| Mariah Carey | 96% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 94¢ · 98¢ (4¢) | — | in 70d |
| The Weeknd | 13% | — | −3 pts | 12¢ · 14¢ (2¢) | — | in 70d |
| Kendrick Lamar | 22% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Luke Combs | 7% | −5 pts | −9 pts | 5¢ · 8¢ (3¢) | — | in 68d |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 17% | — | −3 pts | 14¢ · 20¢ (6¢) | — | in 68d |
| A$AP Rocky | 11% | −7 pts | +8 pts | 6¢ · 16¢ (9¢) | — | in 68d |
| Rihanna | 11% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 9¢ · 13¢ (4¢) | — | in 70d |
| Lil Baby | 7% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 6¢ · 9¢ (3¢) | — | in 68d |
| Zach Bryan | 11% | — | +4 pts | 3¢ · 19¢ (16¢) | — | in 68d |
| SZA | 21% | +3 pts | +8 pts | 20¢ · 22¢ (2¢) | — | in 68d |
| Tyler, The Creator | 9% | — | — | 7¢ · 10¢ (3¢) | — | in 68d |
| Kanye West | 3% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 70d |
| Ed Sheeran | 3% | — | −4 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 68d |
| Morgan Wallen | 25% | — | — | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | — | in 68d |
| Peso Pluma | 7% | — | −2 pts | 5¢ · 8¢ (3¢) | — | in 68d |
| Travis Scott | 22% | +1 pts | +9 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | $55.4 | in 70d |
| Post Malone | 20% | −5 pts | −7 pts | 18¢ · 21¢ (3¢) | $20 | in 68d |
| Jack Harlow | 15% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 13¢ · 17¢ (4¢) | $0.01 | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46d | KiernanMeister | Mariah Carey | BuyYes81¢ → 96¢ | $1,379 | +$264 +19% | 4 |
| 134d | Trustinghorse | Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 150d | SweetChariot | Will Drake have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,449 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 247d | SweetChariot2 fills | Will Bad Bunny have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,202 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d | zxc368 | Will Harry Styles have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 285d |  Zaage | Billie Eilish | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $5,253 | +$426 +8.1% | 4 |
| 286d |  MilitaryChoper | Will Bad Bunny have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $3,024 | −$3,024 −100% | 4 |
| 286d |  zomango | Playboi Carti | BuyNo93¢ → 94¢ | $3,343 | +$41 +1.2% | 4 |
| 287d |  ToshiRock | Frank Ocean | SellNo25¢ → 93¢ | $1,061 | −$2,863 −270% | — |
| 287d | ToshiRock | Future | BuyNo94¢ → 88¢ | $1,044 | −$64 −6.1% | 4 |
| 287d | ToshiRock | Frank Ocean | BuyNo94¢ → 93¢ | $3,987 | −$64 −1.6% | 4 |
| 287d |  Tompou | Doja Cat | SellNo29¢ → 77¢ | $1,247 | −$2,049 −164% | — |
| 287d | Tompou | Doja Cat | BuyNo94¢ → 77¢ | $4,042 | −$746 −18% | 4 |
| 287d | Tompou | Jack Harlow | BuyNo94¢ → 85¢ | $2,382 | −$232 −9.7% | 8 |
| 287d |  OMGhost | Luke Combs | BuyNo95¢ → 94¢ | $1,034 | −$16 −1.6% | 4 |
Dr.PNL79 shares
LornaPredicts60 shares
Haradwaith35 shares
Majas2 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Billie Eilish means the market gives it about 3%.