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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 6% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Donald Trump | 3% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Mark Carney | 12% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 9¢ · 14¢ (5¢) | — | in 69d |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 68% | +3 pts | +22 pts | 56¢ · 79¢ (23¢) | — | in 69d |
| António Guterres | 12% | — | −1 pts | 11¢ · 13¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| Emmanuel Macron | 13% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 10¢ · 15¢ (5¢) | $236 | in 69d |
| Mark Rutte | 44% | — | +3 pts | 43¢ · 44¢ (1¢) | $193 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d | bimaw | Mark Rutte | SellYes34¢ → 44¢ | $2,210 | −$617 −28% | — |
| 4d | dayuzs3 fills | Mark Rutte | SellYes34¢ → 44¢ | $8,040 | −$2,356 −29% | — |
| 5d | bimaw | Mark Rutte | BuyYes36¢ → 44¢ | $2,340 | +$488 +21% | 42 |
| 5d | dayuzs2 fills | Mark Rutte | BuyYes36¢ → 44¢ | $7,848 | +$1,635 +21% | 45 |
| 20d |  anotherpatrick | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,119 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 20d | bangbingbong | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,014 | +$415 +21% | 20 |
| 38d | starbr | JD Vance | SellNo89¢ → 94¢ | $12,538 | −$829 −6.6% | — |
| 38d | sunnyg2 fills | JD Vance | SellNo89¢ → 94¢ | $6,390 | −$406 −6.4% | — |
| 38d | grassb | JD Vance | SellNo89¢ → 94¢ | $7,104 | −$444 −6.2% | — |
| 38d | starbr | JD Vance | BuyNo90¢ → 94¢ | $12,750 | +$616 +4.8% | 20 |
| 38d | grassb | JD Vance | BuyNo90¢ → 94¢ | $7,829 | +$378 +4.8% | 20 |
| 38d | sunnyg | JD Vance | BuyNo90¢ → 94¢ | $6,483 | +$313 +4.8% | 20 |
| 38d | zbajie3 fills | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | SellYes38¢ → 100¢ | $4,978 | −$8,122 −163% | — |
| 39d | lumie | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $3,744 | −$3,744 −100% | 20 |
| 39d | rocket1 | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $3,384 | −$3,384 −100% | 20 |
| 39d | kindso | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | SellYes27¢ → 100¢ | $3,537 | −$9,563 −270% | — |
| 40d | huafei | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $2,463 | −$2,463 −100% | 20 |
| 40d | kindso2 fills | Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes27¢ → 100¢ | $2,673 | +$7,227 +270% | 24 |
| 48d | kukubaja | Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d |  probability | Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,141 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 48d |  Skovorodnikov | Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,821 | +$133 +4.7% | 20 |
| 49d | Dafri220286 | Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$44 +4.2% | 20 |
| 61d | Michael5289 | Will Maia Sandu visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,104 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 61d | Michael5289 | Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,093 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
LornaPredicts60 shares
smellyEllie322 shares
Tenebrus7200 shares
Mithrandir.40 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for JD Vance means the market gives it about 6%.