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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 68% | −1 pts | +8 pts | 68¢ · 69¢ (2¢) | $516 | in 11d |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 28% | 0 pts | −6 pts | 27¢ · 29¢ (2¢) | $1.04K | in 11d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $112 | in 11d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 11d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d |  aenews2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellYes32¢ → 28¢ | $1,063 | +$146 +14% | — |
| 4d |  coranix | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo38¢ → 32¢ | $1,290 | +$216 +17% | — |
| 4d |  0xwordjnn | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo39¢ → 32¢ | $1,031 | +$198 +19% | — |
| 7d | ZhouCD | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo39¢ → 32¢ | $2,346 | +$450 +19% | — |
| 7d | skydodo | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo39¢ → 32¢ | $1,134 | +$218 +19% | — |
| 7d | aenews2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes59¢ → 68¢ | $11,973 | +$1,956 +16% | 40 |
| 7d | aenews2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyYes33¢ → 28¢ | $1,991 | −$325 −16% | 42 |
| 7d |  bigdihhh888 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes59¢ → 68¢ | $1,095 | +$166 +15% | 40 |
| 7d |  CryptoLiu | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellYes33¢ → 28¢ | $1,566 | +$256 +16% | — |
| 7d | CryptoLiu | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyYes33¢ → 28¢ | $2,167 | −$350 −16% | 42 |
| 11d | 1nvoker1 | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,918 | +$52 +2.7% | 23 |
| 11d | title1 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyNo66¢ → 72¢ | $1,492 | +$134 +9.0% | 40 |
| 11d |  Car | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes58¢ → 68¢ | $1,348 | +$230 +17% | 40 |
aenews22,984 shares
balthazar1,852 shares
voidmami250 shares
Digital-Boy214 shares
pjotrekkk200 sharesbigdihhh88820 sharesThe rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 68¢ for No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate means the market gives it about 68%.