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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 69% | 0 pts | +5 pts | 68¢ · 69¢ (1¢) | $1.41K | in 11d |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 31% | +2 pts | −1 pts | 31¢ · 32¢ (1¢) | $864 | in 11d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | <1% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | $3.84K | in 11d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | <1% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | $1.46K | in 11d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d |  gmgmgmgmg | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,115 | +$17 +1.5% | 21 |
| 5d | e46m3 | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,107 | +$25 +2.3% | 22 |
| 5d | laureman2 fills | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | SellNo98¢ → >99¢ | $6,304 | −$114 −1.8% | — |
| 5d | laureman | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | SellNo97¢ → >99¢ | $2,477 | −$67 −2.7% | — |
| 7d | laureman3 fills | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $12,584 | +$293 +2.3% | 22 |
| 7d |  MisTKy | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo36¢ → 31¢ | $1,627 | +$221 +14% | — |
| 7d | MisTKy | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellNo67¢ → 69¢ | $6,954 | −$216 −3.1% | — |
| 7d | alex20011 | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,059 | +$29 +2.7% | 22 |
| 7d | ZhouCD | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellNo68¢ → 69¢ | $4,050 | −$72 −1.8% | — |
| 7d | C03B | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyYes32¢ → 31¢ | $3,875 | −$134 −3.5% | 45 |
| 7d | ZhouCD | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo37¢ → 31¢ | $2,214 | +$330 +15% | — |
| 7d |  bigdihhh888 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes63¢ → 69¢ | $1,164 | +$104 +9.0% | 40 |
| 7d | C03B | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes62¢ → 69¢ | $7,374 | +$721 +9.8% | 40 |
| 10d | laureman2 fills | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | BuyNo96¢ → >99¢ | $4,823 | +$175 +3.6% | 22 |
| 11d |  Quandal | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | SellNo96¢ → >99¢ | $3,602 | −$133 −3.7% | — |
| 11d | BunCaCham | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | SellNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,172 | −$32 −2.7% | — |
| 11d |  paddaa | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyNo65¢ → 69¢ | $6,000 | +$323 +5.4% | 40 |
| 11d |  chessplayer | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | SellNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,264 | −$36 −2.8% | — |
Haradwaith1,220 shares
MrMelonHead694 shares
pjotrekkk200 shares
Lolakis96 sharesThe rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 69¢ for No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate means the market gives it about 69%.