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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −25 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 245d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,891 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 245d | wenhai1058 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,040 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 245d | Bertholdt | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,881 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | Yalokin | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo>99¢ | $48,778 | −$49 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | BreadGet2 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $16,997 | −$770 −4.5% | — |
| 245d | Fancyi10 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $27,128 | −$6,844 −25% | — |
| 245d | Thanks4TheMoney | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,069 | −$41 −1.0% | — |
| 245d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,249 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 245d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$42 +2.1% | 20 | |
| 245d | Thanks4TheMoney | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$110 +2.8% | 20 |
| 245d | toytrucks2 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $5,240 | +$1,001 +19% | 20 |
| 245d | jsmp15 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $7,947 | −$2,916 −37% | — |
| 246d | Erutan4 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $5,810 | +$2,537 +44% | 20 |
| 246d | Yalokin2 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $37,000 | +$11,826 +32% | 20 |
| 246d | nopenopen | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyYes27¢ → 0¢ | $5,198 | −$5,198 −100% | 27 |
| 246d | immanuelcan2 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $4,618 | +$1,539 +33% | 20 |
| 246d | darkflamemaster | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | −$400 −36% | — |
| 246d | Barinho11 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | −$409 −35% | — |
| 247d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $30,752 | +$14,201 +46% | 20 | |
| 248d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$474 +32% | 20 | |
| 249d | OswaldTheBrave | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,516 | +$839 +33% | 20 |
| 250d | therunout | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $2,220 | −$780 −35% | — |
| 252d | Fancyi5 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $15,997 | +$6,743 +42% | 20 |
| 252d | SlavaUkraini2 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $41,570 | +$15,712 +38% | 20 |
| 253d | lijialijia2020 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $16,348 | −$6,566 −40% | — |
| 253d | darkflamemaster | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$405 +37% | 20 |
| 254d | 0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | −$468 −39% | — |
| 254d | nino_jetski | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$436 −39% | — |
| 255d | Neat-Brushfire | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,415 | +$893 +37% | 20 |
| 255d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $13,589 | −$13,589 −100% | 31 | |
| 255d | exid | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | −$383 −35% | — |
| 255d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $12,634 | −$12,634 −100% | 30 | |
| 256d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $4,548 | −$1,682 −37% | — | |
| 256d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $4,489 | +$1,643 +37% | 20 | |
| 258d | slight-2 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellYes7¢ → 0¢ | $4,002 | +$4,002 +100% | — |
| 258d | KGAG | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,856 | −$874 −47% | — |
| 258d | KGAG | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$830 +44% | 20 |
| 259d | exid | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$443 +43% | 20 |
| 260d | Kflyguy | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,823 | −$820 −45% | — |
| 260d | Master-Margarita | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $4,750 | −$2,134 −45% | — |
| 260d | lotionmymotion3 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $6,800 | −$3,200 −47% | — |
| 262d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | −$512 −47% | — | |
| 263d | user12449 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | −$1,600 −47% | — |
| 263d | cryptomo1116 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$489 −47% | — |
| 263d | alliswell10 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $76,741 | −$34,007 −44% | — |
| 264d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | −$575 −49% | — | |
| 264d | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$496 +45% | 20 | |
| 265d | HypeBoy | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellYes32¢ → 0¢ | $2,180 | +$2,180 +100% | — |
| 267d | Odysseus7 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | −$549 −47% | — |
| 267d | Master-Margarita | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $3,611 | +$1,554 +43% | 20 |
| 267d | Zeldaking | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellYes30¢ → 0¢ | $8,351 | +$8,351 +100% | — |
| 268d | LBT8882 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | −$951 −47% | — |
| 269d | qwerkk | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $2,967 | −$1,333 −45% | — |
| 270d | Giannis2026 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,522 | −$684 −45% | — |
| 271d | surf3 fills | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $4,655 | −$4,655 −100% | 27 |
| 272d | Barbarika | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | −$1,600 −47% | — |
| 272d | Winged-Mycoplasma | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$500 −47% | — |
| 273d | LuisLoyaC | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,137 | −$1,137 −100% | 20 |
| 273d | 0x123heg2 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | −$615 −47% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.