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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | +2 pts | −2 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | $3.16K | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0xC81b7D9F4464C9985f5621492829ahdfc | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $1,235 | +$13 +1.1% | — |
| 3d | Thombg | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo94¢ | $1,299 | +$6 +0.5% | — |
| 3d | thoodr10 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 94¢ | $43,711 | +$807 +1.8% | 25 |
| 7d | jackchen-cs5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 94¢ | $11,506 | +$965 +8.4% | 29 |
| 7d |  Donny.T2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 94¢ | $2,745 | +$75 +2.7% | 26 |
| 8d | egrdvdg | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo92¢ → 94¢ | $7,035 | −$153 −2.2% | — |
| 9d | Ferwhere | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes7¢ → 6¢ | $4,000 | −$335 −8.4% | 51 |
| 9d |  Sardinianshepherd | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $2,375 | +$25 +1.1% | — |
| 16d |  Specksalam | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $8,455 | +$89 +1.1% | — |
| 17d | CP-directional | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 94¢ | $2,000 | −$42 −2.1% | 23 |
| 18d |  MisTKy | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $3,646 | +$38 +1.1% | — |
| 18d | Worse-Scenario | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $16,368 | +$172 +1.1% | — |
| 19d | uprightuser | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 94¢ | $4,750 | +$50 +1.1% | — |
| 21d | Specksalam | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 94¢ | $8,455 | −$89 −1.1% | 23 |
| 27d | MisTKy8 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo78¢ → 94¢ | $37,578 | +$7,782 +21% | 35 |
| 27d | Gdub | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 94¢ | $3,800 | −$40 −1.1% | 23 |
| 37d | Beyonddream | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 94¢ | $2,321 | −$25 −1.1% | — |
| 39d | KiernanMeister2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 94¢ | $14,533 | −$96 −0.7% | — |
| 55d | katbot | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 94¢ | $2,215 | −$24 −1.1% | — |
| 78d |  kekkone | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo91¢ → 94¢ | $1,360 | −$49 −3.6% | — |
| 78d | ANGGGuess4 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo88¢ → 94¢ | $15,250 | +$971 +6.4% | 28 |
| 92d | momo513 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo86¢ → 94¢ | $3,448 | −$312 −9.1% | — |
| 94d | MissaoComFlavio4 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo87¢ → 94¢ | $11,936 | −$991 −8.3% | — |
| 94d |  paddaa8 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo83¢ → 94¢ | $22,107 | −$2,835 −13% | — |
| 94d | LulaVaiPerder3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo87¢ → 94¢ | $8,484 | −$724 −8.5% | — |
| 95d | kevtp2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo86¢ → 94¢ | $2,886 | −$276 −9.6% | — |
| 96d | 0x0f34…76842 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 94¢ | $3,196 | +$258 +8.1% | 29 |
| 99d |  AngryRhino | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo85¢ → 94¢ | $12,761 | −$1,339 −10% | — |
| 99d | LulaVaiPerder2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo79¢ → 94¢ | $6,349 | +$1,202 +19% | 34 |
| 99d | delphy | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo86¢ → 94¢ | $1,180 | +$110 +9.3% | 29 |
| 102d | paddaa7 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo80¢ → 94¢ | $15,657 | +$2,723 +17% | 33 |
| 113d | 9792E6bDf9Ff005d9e8bff608E8EF832864cBc5A2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo82¢ → 94¢ | $7,501 | +$1,137 +15% | 32 |
| 116d | BaronLounis2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes14¢ → 6¢ | $4,483 | +$2,608 +58% | — |
| 119d | MissaoComFlavio2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo82¢ → 94¢ | $10,722 | +$1,547 +14% | 32 |
| 120d | BillyRios | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes18¢ → 6¢ | $1,106 | +$739 +67% | — |
| 125d |  starbuck02 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo78¢ → 94¢ | $4,304 | −$897 −21% | — |
| 128d |  dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes24¢ → 6¢ | $1,200 | +$900 +75% | — |
| 129d | dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes26¢ → 6¢ | $1,300 | −$1,000 −77% | 41 |
| 129d | Innominate777 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes25¢ → 6¢ | $1,697 | −$1,288 −76% | 43 |
| 131d | mathrex | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo77¢ → 94¢ | $6,152 | −$1,314 −21% | — |
| 134d | Carpool | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes17¢ → 6¢ | $1,414 | +$912 +64% | — |
| 135d |  Magic-Mushroom-Predicting | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo81¢ → 94¢ | $1,589 | −$255 −16% | — |
| 137d | momo5132 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo79¢ → 94¢ | $5,525 | +$1,055 +19% | 34 |
| 140d | DWIGHTA.A.R.M | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo78¢ → 94¢ | $1,600 | −$328 −21% | — |
| 144d | placerv2 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo78¢ → 94¢ | $2,237 | +$459 +21% | 35 |
| 148d | PepsiWarrior | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes24¢ → 6¢ | $1,000 | −$748 −75% | 40 |
| 149d |  Warren-Buffett | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo77¢ → 94¢ | $1,226 | −$271 −22% | — |
| 150d | Rich-Riser | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes22¢ → 6¢ | $1,026 | +$746 +73% | — |
| 153d | Kevindoto | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo78¢ → 94¢ | $13,507 | +$2,818 +21% | 35 |
| 155d |  GollumGekko2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo78¢ → 94¢ | $2,374 | −$473 −20% | — |
| 155d | Inchoroi2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyNo77¢ → 94¢ | $3,580 | +$797 +22% | 35 |
| 155d |  DFK | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo74¢ → 94¢ | $2,960 | −$797 −27% | — |
| 155d |  KnureKnume3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes24¢ → 6¢ | $3,642 | −$2,718 −75% | 46 |
| 156d | wan123 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes23¢ → 6¢ | $3,182 | −$2,353 −74% | 46 |
| 159d | Fearless-Spectacles | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo78¢ → 94¢ | $2,137 | −$438 −21% | — |
| 159d | Bodytobody2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellNo75¢ → 94¢ | $2,468 | −$628 −25% | — |
| 159d | 0x0da9…b527 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes19¢ → 6¢ | $1,066 | +$737 +69% | — |
| 160d | Black-Filth2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes19¢ → 6¢ | $2,582 | +$1,758 +68% | — |
| 161d | KnureKnume3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SellYes44¢ → 6¢ | $5,017 | +$4,332 +86% | — |
| 162d | Threadbare-Signal | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BuyYes23¢ → 6¢ | $1,623 | −$1,200 −74% | 42 |
aenews228,947 shares
Erasmus.27,158 shares
ddurrrrrr22,390 sharesDonny.T13,902 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 6%.