| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 8,016 | 46¢ → 65¢ | $5,170 | +$1,459 +39% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 5,116 | 84¢ → 84¢ | $4,272 | −$33 −0.8% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 8,025 | 51¢ → 35¢ | $2,769 | −$1,345 −33% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 4,155 | 66¢ → 65¢ | $2,701 | −$42 −1.5% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 4,257 | 30¢ → 35¢ | $1,490 | +$213 +17% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Ends in 68d | No | 5,114 | 15¢ → 17¢ | $844 | +$53 +6.7% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 324 | 78¢ → 78¢ | $251 | −$2 −0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 207 | 72¢ → 89¢ | $183 | +$34 +23% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 207 | 78¢ → 84¢ | $173 | +$11 +7.1% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 591 | 19¢ → 19¢ | $109 | −$1 −0.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,500 | 12¢ → 6¢ | $90 | −$95 −51% |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 76 | 82¢ → 86¢ | $65 | +$3 +4.9% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 75 | 60¢ → 84¢ | $63 | +$17 +39% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Ends in 434d | Anthropic | 56 | 80¢ → 94¢ | $53 | +$8 +18% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 53d | No | 204 | 23¢ → 22¢ | $44 | −$3 −6.5% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 341 | 25¢ → 12¢ | $39 | −$47 −54% |
| Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 38 | 97¢ → 73¢ | $28 | −$9 −25% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 31 | 52¢ → 85¢ | $26 | +$10 +62% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 83 | 37¢ → 23¢ | $19 | −$12 −39% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 36 | 44¢ → 18¢ | $7 | −$9 −59% |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 20 | 66¢ → 29¢ | $6 | −$7 −56% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 155 | 23¢ → 3¢ | $5 | −$31 −87% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | Yes | 1,052 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $4 | −$5 −56% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 18¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 15¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 15¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 69d | Yes | 84 | 5¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$4 −93% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 7¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 5¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 5¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 3¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 3¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → 1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 5 | 0¢ → <1¢ | $0 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 2AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 152 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 495 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,123 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 32 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 211 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 23 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 20 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,631 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 78 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 264 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$32 −100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 516 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 58 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 126 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$34 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 107 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,692 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,218 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$399 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 35 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 75 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
