| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 4,078 | 47¢ → 61¢ | $2,488 | +$590 +31% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 2,098 | 65¢ → 86¢ | $1,794 | +$426 +31% |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 158d | No | 2,200 | 62¢ → 65¢ | $1,419 | +$58 +4.3% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 2,268 | 67¢ → 62¢ | $1,405 | −$114 −7.5% |
| Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,228 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $1,208 | +$84 +7.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 1,430 | 71¢ → 81¢ | $1,159 | +$137 +13% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 1,286 | 83¢ → 90¢ | $1,151 | +$84 +7.9% |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 1,240 | 75¢ → 88¢ | $1,085 | +$159 +17% |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 1,148 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $1,071 | +$11 +1.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 1,182 | 79¢ → 88¢ | $1,034 | +$101 +11% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 1,120 | 87¢ → 92¢ | $1,025 | +$50 +5.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 1,253 | 61¢ → 82¢ | $1,021 | +$260 +34% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 1,328 | 69¢ → 74¢ | $976 | +$58 +6.4% |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 1,031 | 73¢ → 93¢ | $955 | +$202 +27% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 987 | 81¢ → 92¢ | $903 | +$108 +14% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 936 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $889 | +$73 +8.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 795 | 90¢ → 93¢ | $739 | +$22 +3.1% |
| US x North Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 873 | 81¢ → 85¢ | $737 | +$34 +4.8% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 783 | 69¢ → 90¢ | $701 | +$163 +30% |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 767 | 76¢ → 89¢ | $682 | +$97 +17% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 975 | 54¢ → 69¢ | $668 | +$141 +27% |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 993 | 68¢ → 66¢ | $656 | −$23 −3.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 672 | 69¢ → 93¢ | $622 | +$158 +34% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 637 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $608 | +$27 +4.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 634 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $606 | +$44 +7.8% |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 651 | 85¢ → 93¢ | $602 | +$49 +8.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 616 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $585 | +$29 +5.3% |
| Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 680 | 77¢ → 85¢ | $578 | +$56 +11% |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 661 | 77¢ → 88¢ | $578 | +$66 +13% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 666 | 53¢ → 85¢ | $566 | +$216 +62% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,487 | 39¢ → 38¢ | $558 | −$26 −4.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 578 | 90¢ → 94¢ | $541 | +$20 +3.8% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 576 | 89¢ → 93¢ | $536 | +$24 +4.7% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 552 | 88¢ → 93¢ | $512 | +$29 +5.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 543 | 80¢ → 93¢ | $505 | +$71 +16% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 956 | 53¢ → 53¢ | $502 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 553 | 87¢ → 91¢ | $500 | +$18 +3.8% |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 514 | 75¢ → 94¢ | $480 | +$94 +24% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 554 | 85¢ → 86¢ | $474 | +$3 +0.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 710 | 51¢ → 63¢ | $444 | +$82 +23% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 581 | 71¢ → 76¢ | $442 | +$26 +6.3% |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 450 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $425 | +$32 +8.0% |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 456 | 82¢ → 93¢ | $422 | +$46 +12% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 625 | 59¢ → 64¢ | $400 | +$32 +8.7% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 452 | 80¢ → 88¢ | $395 | +$34 +9.5% |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 415 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $394 | +$37 +10% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 413 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $393 | +$34 +9.6% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 413 | 89¢ → 93¢ | $382 | +$15 +4.0% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $9.75B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 361 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $348 | +$25 +7.6% |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 658 | 30¢ → 49¢ | $322 | +$125 +63% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 332 | 83¢ → 96¢ | $317 | +$41 +15% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 350 | 90¢ → 90¢ | $313 | −$1 −0.2% |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 1,054 | 30¢ → 30¢ | $311 | −$2 −0.7% |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 863 | 44¢ → 36¢ | $306 | −$77 −20% |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 378 | 79¢ → 79¢ | $297 | −$0 −0.1% |
| UBS announces move out of Switzerland by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 332 | 82¢ → 89¢ | $294 | +$20 +7.3% |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 380 | 78¢ → 74¢ | $281 | −$15 −5.0% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?Ends in 18d | No | 281 | 95¢ → 97¢ | $271 | +$6 +2.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 1,347 | 21¢ → 20¢ | $269 | −$18 −6.1% |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 305 | 69¢ → 82¢ | $248 | +$37 +17% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $19B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 250 | 88¢ → 95¢ | $238 | +$19 +8.5% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 245 | 83¢ → 95¢ | $234 | +$30 +15% |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 271 | 83¢ → 85¢ | $231 | +$5 +2.0% |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 423 | 55¢ → 53¢ | $224 | −$7 −3.0% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in October?Ends in 18d | No | 212 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $200 | +$11 +5.5% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 218 | 52¢ → 87¢ | $190 | +$76 +67% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation at the end of October?Ends in 8d | Yes | 196 | 89¢ → 97¢ | $189 | +$15 +8.6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 200 | 79¢ → 95¢ | $189 | +$31 +20% |
| Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 216 | 82¢ → 86¢ | $185 | +$8 +4.7% |
| Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 228 | 72¢ → 79¢ | $180 | +$15 +9.1% |
| Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 199 | 89¢ → 89¢ | $176 | −$1 −0.8% |
| Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?Ends in 4d | Yes | 439 | 38¢ → 38¢ | $167 | +$1 +0.5% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.5B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 167 | 89¢ → 99¢ | $165 | +$16 +11% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 165 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $162 | +$17 +12% |
| Modi out by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 177 | 71¢ → 90¢ | $159 | +$33 +26% |
| Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 199 | 80¢ → 80¢ | $158 | −$2 −1.0% |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 186 | 75¢ → 84¢ | $156 | +$17 +12% |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 169 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $155 | +$15 +11% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Ends in 6h | Yes | 207 | 66¢ → 69¢ | $141 | +$6 +4.1% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $27B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 132 | 82¢ → 96¢ | $126 | +$18 +17% |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $207.5B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 165 | 85¢ → 73¢ | $120 | −$21 −15% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 138 | 77¢ → 87¢ | $120 | +$14 +13% |
| Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 477 | 37¢ → 25¢ | $117 | −$61 −34% |
| Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 123 | 79¢ → 91¢ | $112 | +$14 +15% |
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 115 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $110 | +$3 +2.5% |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 103 | 72¢ → 95¢ | $97 | +$23 +32% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.75B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 150 | 65¢ → 62¢ | $92 | −$5 −5.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 114 | 72¢ → 81¢ | $92 | +$10 +12% |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 91 | 78¢ → 96¢ | $87 | +$16 +22% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 96 | 67¢ → 90¢ | $86 | +$22 +34% |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 650 | 21¢ → 13¢ | $84 | −$49 −37% |
| Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 106 | 84¢ → 78¢ | $82 | −$7 −7.5% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in October?Ends in 18d | No | 77 | 94¢ → 99¢ | $76 | +$4 +5.0% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20.5B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 111 | 51¢ → 69¢ | $76 | +$19 +34% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 120 | 65¢ → 62¢ | $74 | −$4 −5.4% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 100 | 78¢ → 72¢ | $72 | −$6 −7.7% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 75 | 88¢ → 94¢ | $70 | +$4 +6.3% |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?Ends ended | No | 232 | 38¢ → 28¢ | $65 | −$24 −27% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 475 | 31¢ → 14¢ | $64 | −$82 −56% |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 129 | 43¢ → 48¢ | $61 | +$5 +9.3% |
