| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 11d | Yes | 1,211 | 87¢ → 90¢ | $1,093 | +$34 +3.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends ended | Yes | 899 | 85¢ → 99¢ | $886 | +$120 +16% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 1d | Yes | 873 | 75¢ → 91¢ | $790 | +$135 +21% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,009 | 55¢ → 65¢ | $651 | +$95 +17% |
| Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?Ends in 11d | Yes | 695 | 76¢ → 82¢ | $570 | +$40 +7.5% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 678 | 64¢ → 78¢ | $526 | +$94 +22% |
| Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 568 | 79¢ → 89¢ | $506 | +$54 +12% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 594 | 63¢ → 69¢ | $407 | +$33 +8.8% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 520 | 31¢ → 75¢ | $389 | +$227 +140% |
| Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 501 | 63¢ → 73¢ | $363 | +$45 +14% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 1,009 | 44¢ → 35¢ | $348 | −$95 −21% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 583 | 50¢ → 56¢ | $324 | +$32 +11% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Ends in 220d | No | 595 | 50¢ → 50¢ | $295 | −$3 −1.0% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 291 | 92¢ → 99¢ | $289 | +$20 +7.4% |
| Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 434 | 41¢ → 67¢ | $289 | +$111 +62% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 1d | No | 404 | 69¢ → 71¢ | $285 | +$6 +2.2% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 69d | No | 312 | 63¢ → 83¢ | $258 | +$60 +31% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 16d | No | 619 | 37¢ → 40¢ | $247 | +$21 +9.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 5d | No | 1,386 | 28¢ → 18¢ | $243 | −$152 −39% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Ends in 434d | No | 599 | 35¢ → 32¢ | $191 | −$17 −8.2% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 1d | No | 175 | 9¢ → 97¢ | $169 | +$153 +944% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 682 | 72¢ → 24¢ | $162 | −$330 −67% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 501 | 34¢ → 31¢ | $153 | −$20 −12% |
| Will SNSD win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | No | 151 | 70¢ → 92¢ | $139 | +$33 +32% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 434 | 49¢ → 30¢ | $130 | −$83 −39% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 130 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $129 | +$3 +2.0% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 11d | No | 479 | 33¢ → 27¢ | $127 | −$30 −19% |
| Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Ends in 8h | No | 134 | 81¢ → 92¢ | $123 | +$14 +13% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 135 | 61¢ → 90¢ | $121 | +$38 +46% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 1d | No | 404 | 32¢ → 29¢ | $117 | −$12 −9.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,214 | 11¢ → 9¢ | $114 | −$22 −16% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 202 | 11¢ → 55¢ | $111 | +$89 +400% |
| Will AP call US House control by November 4, 11:59 PM?Ends in 12d | No | 801 | 20¢ → 13¢ | $104 | −$58 −36% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Ends in 100d | No | 141 | 75¢ → 73¢ | $103 | −$3 −2.8% |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 110 | 78¢ → 93¢ | $102 | +$16 +19% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 100 | 97¢ → >99¢ | $100 | +$2 +2.4% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 202 | 87¢ → 48¢ | $97 | −$79 −45% |
| Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 569 | 18¢ → 17¢ | $94 | −$8 −8.0% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 98 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $89 | −$0 −0.3% |
| Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 37d | No | 108 | 79¢ → 75¢ | $81 | −$5 −5.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 85 | 69¢ → 79¢ | $67 | +$8 +14% |
| Will AP call US House control by November 4, 12:59 AM?Ends in 11d | Yes | 91 | 67¢ → 66¢ | $60 | −$1 −2.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 91 | 57¢ → 64¢ | $58 | +$6 +11% |
| Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 312 | 33¢ → 17¢ | $53 | −$50 −48% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Ends in 128d | Yes | 141 | 27¢ → 33¢ | $46 | +$7 +19% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 69d | No | 55 | 71¢ → 76¢ | $42 | +$3 +7.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Ends in 30d | Yes | 91 | 43¢ → 43¢ | $39 | −$0 −0.4% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 40 | 70¢ → 96¢ | $38 | +$11 +38% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?Ends in 342d | Yes | 60 | 58¢ → 63¢ | $38 | +$3 +8.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 142 | 28¢ → 23¢ | $33 | −$7 −18% |
| Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?Ends in 14d | Yes | 41 | 84¢ → 79¢ | $32 | −$2 −6.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 40 | 44¢ → 76¢ | $30 | +$13 +72% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 30 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $29 | +$3 +11% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 8h | No | 28 | 89¢ → 99¢ | $28 | +$3 +11% |
| Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 37d | No | 108 | 19¢ → 24¢ | $25 | +$5 +27% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?Ends in 312d | No | 60 | 42¢ → 40¢ | $24 | −$2 −6.0% |
| Will SNSD win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | No | 171 | 26¢ → 14¢ | $23 | −$21 −48% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 20 | 83¢ → 97¢ | $19 | +$3 +17% |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% in October?Ends in 8d | No | 20 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $19 | +$1 +3.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | Yes | 132 | 35¢ → 14¢ | $19 | −$27 −59% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | Yes | 40 | 51¢ → 44¢ | $18 | −$3 −14% |
| Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?Ends in 14d | Yes | 19 | 51¢ → 90¢ | $17 | +$7 +75% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 38d | No | 19 | 66¢ → 89¢ | $17 | +$4 +35% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 16 | 59¢ → 96¢ | $15 | +$6 +63% |
| Will NDP win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Ends in 8h | No | 138 | 20¢ → 8¢ | $11 | −$16 −59% |
| Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?Ends in 11d | No | 20 | 29¢ → 54¢ | $11 | +$5 +86% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 23d | No | 20 | 41¢ → 54¢ | $11 | +$3 +30% |
| Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 80¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$2 +20% |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 109 | 19¢ → 9¢ | $9 | −$11 −55% |
| Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 19 | 37¢ → 48¢ | $9 | +$2 +28% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 35 | 33¢ → 21¢ | $7 | −$4 −38% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?Ends in 281d | Yes | 11 | 56¢ → 58¢ | $6 | +$0 +3.6% |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 5 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $5 | +$0 +0.9% |
| Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 11:59 PM?Ends in 12d | No | 21 | 15¢ → 24¢ | $5 | +$2 +57% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 40 | 30¢ → 12¢ | $5 | −$7 −62% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 20 | 17¢ → 19¢ | $4 | +$0 +8.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 126 | 7¢ → 3¢ | $4 | −$5 −60% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | Yes | 31 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $3 | −$1 −17% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 130 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $2 | −$0 −8.3% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | −$0 −10% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 292 | 5¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$14 −96% |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?Ends in 8d | Yes | 20 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$0 −15% |
| Will SDA win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 9¢ → 3¢ | $0 | −$1 −72% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 101 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 158 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 303 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$138 −100% |
| Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 482 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$77 −100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12 | 83¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 33 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 147 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 969 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 13 | 72¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 354 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 437 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$74 −100% |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,185 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$345 −100% |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 343 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 254 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
