OrvilleSurrey

Polymarket wallet 0x8424dd5814230e0517a153713c880d3d5b2d093e · on Polymarket since Oct 29, 2025 · also shown as Fragrant-Lunge

Open on Polymarket ↗@AliciaCart30985 ↗

Positions now worth: $18.3
All-time profit: +$498
Volume traded: $68K
All-time rank: #115,195
Markets traded: 153
Recent hit rate: 100%50 of last 50 closed

Open positions

70 markets · $18.3

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem	No	8	98¢ → 100¢	$8	+$0 +1.7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem	No	2	99¢ → 100¢	$2	+$0 +1.0%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	98¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +2.0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	98¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +1.9%
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	98¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +1.7%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	99¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +1.5%
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	99¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +1.4%
Will Frank Crivello win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	99¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +0.6%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	>99¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +0.3%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?Settled - ready to redeem	No	1	>99¢ → 100¢	$1	+$0 +0.3%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	500	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$250 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	1,000	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$500 −100%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
281d	Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	BuyNo98¢	$1
292d	Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BuyNo99¢	$1
301d	Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BuyNo99¢	$1
316d	Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	BuyNo98¢	$1
317d	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?	BuyNo99¢	$1
319d	Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BuyNo99¢	$1
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$125
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$25
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$25
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$25
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$25
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$25
322d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$3
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$247
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$248
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$2
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$248
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$2
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$243
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$8
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$243
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$8
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$247
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$3
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyDown54¢	$9
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyDown53¢	$3
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyDown53¢	$1
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyDown53¢	$16
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyDown51¢	$104
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	BuyDown51¢	$123
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
323d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	BuyUp49¢	$246
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$201
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$50
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BuyDown50¢	$250
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$112
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$250
324d	Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	BuyUp50¢	$14

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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