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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 67d |
| Kevin Hassett | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Christopher Waller | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Bill Pulte | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Judy Shelton | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| David Malpass | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Arthur Laffer | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Larry Kudlow | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Jerome Powell | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Ron Paul | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Stephen Miran | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Scott Bessent | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| James Bullard | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Marc Sumerlin | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| David Zervos | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Rick Rieder | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Michelle Bowman | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Lorie K. Logan | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Philip Jefferson | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Janet Yellen | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Larry Lindsey | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Barron Trump | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Donald Trump | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Individual P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| Individual Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| No one nominated before 2027 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 67d |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 67d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 233d |  duderr2 fills | Judy Shelton | SellNo>99¢ | $111,600 | −$112 −0.1% | — |
| 233d | kobie32 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,672 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | pelik | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  LisaMooCowski | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,354 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | KDB2 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,000 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | b4k9xj2wh | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $61,842 | +$62 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | FedFan2 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $67,081 | +$67 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  classified8 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $472,527 | +$473 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  bosshog3 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $174,825 | +$175 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | forgomypassword | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | Numberone1112 fills | Judy Shelton | SellNo>99¢ | $114,780 | −$220 −0.2% | — |
| 233d | regainz | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $6,560 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 233d | BasedKDB | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  ClaudeAI | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $530,464 | +$531 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  Nobo | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,368 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | Herotruck | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $15,390 | −$31 −0.2% | — |
| 233d |  megabase | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  CoffeeLover2 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  awaylot | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,372 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | Cantfindausername | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,001 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  JaidenAnimations | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,951 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  09432 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $485,061 | +$486 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  tsybka3 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $263,358 | +$264 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | AnonymousUsername | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,950 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  debased | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $11,089 | −$22 −0.2% | — |
| 233d |  Xeny3 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,988 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  GroyperFinancialServices8 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $176,311 | +$176 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  UMAisawesome | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,516 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  mostobesegoldfish | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | 7G-MAN71 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $318,603 | +$486 +0.2% | 20 |
| 233d | Positive-Damage | Judy Shelton | BuyYes<1¢ | $2,076 | −$2,076 −100% | 29 |
| 233d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate3 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,371,795 | +$1,373 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | schizohedgehog | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,027 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  DickTurbin | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  tourists2 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $199,150 | +$199 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  basedd | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $59,940 | +$60 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | 0xd730…1948 | Judy Shelton | SellNo>99¢ | $1,207 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 233d |  PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $35,518 | −$71 −0.2% | — |
| 233d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $119,880 | +$120 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  ProfessionalPunter3 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,438 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  takemymoney | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,919 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | tableaux | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,036 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | M888 | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $88,799 | +$89 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | sports-professional | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,686 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  Trenches | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $10,942 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 233d | texture | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,753 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  ZhangMuZhi..3 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,492 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | zxc3688 fills | Judy Shelton | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  RememberAmalek3 fills | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $14,985 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 233d | 12100K | Judy Shelton | SellNo>99¢ | $2,994 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 233d | Boring-Screwdriver | Judy Shelton | BuyYes<1¢ | $1,393 | −$1,393 −100% | 23 |
| 233d | Trenches | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,198 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  Cungly | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,631 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | zxc3682 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | delphilo | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $1,353 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 233d |  monstur | Kevin Warsh | SellYes>99¢ | $10,977 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 233d | Trenches | Judy Shelton | SellNo>99¢ | $28,465 | −$28 −0.1% | — |
| 233d | operationcastle | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,806 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | Quick-Fundraising | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $49,950 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d | wubddh2 fills | Kevin Warsh | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,880 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
Avarice31111,399 sharesThis market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Kevin Warsh means the market gives it about 100%.