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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $12.1K | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17h |  DFK | December 31, 2026 | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $11,400 | −$60 −0.5% | — |
| 7d | DFK3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $5,734 | +$70 +1.2% | 24 |
| 9d | kevtp2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $9,450 | +$100 +1.1% | 24 |
| 25d | FMANTENNA | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,503 | −$24 −1.6% | — |
| 31d | whysoslow | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes7¢ → 5¢ | $1,384 | −$484 −35% | 32 |
| 54d |  DEGENKHAN | December 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,003 | −$27 −2.7% | — |
| 65d | Burly-Temperature2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $14,250 | +$75 +0.5% | 23 |
| 77d | gatorr | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes7¢ → 5¢ | $1,470 | −$525 −36% | 33 |
| 82d |  DegenerateJanet | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,880 | +$30 +1.6% | 22 |
| 86d | keribit | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $4,650 | +$125 +2.7% | 25 |
| 87d |  i400 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,395 | +$37 +2.7% | 22 |
| 89d | gorovi9 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $29,525 | +$588 +2.0% | 24 |
| 114d |  Aq4ExePrd22Jn | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $2,300 | +$87 +3.8% | 24 |
| 118d |  0xbadbeef5 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,539 | −$74 −0.5% | — |
| 119d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b043 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,763 | +$180 +1.5% | 20 |
| 121d | DFK2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,941 | −$23 −0.6% | — |
| 122d | gorovi2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,973 | −$27 −0.4% | — |
| 124d | TheTradingGame2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,857 | −$151 −2.2% | — |
| 126d | hklcrypt | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 126d | hklcrypt | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 126d |  elmcap23 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,750 | +$74 +0.6% | 20 |
| 127d | HotDogs | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 136d |  Tenebrus7 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,476 | −$24 −1.0% | — |
| 138d | DegenerateJanet2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,876 | +$124 +2.5% | 20 |
| 142d |  debased | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,661 | −$35 −1.3% | — |
| 142d |  Mr-Anderson | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,306 | +$94 +1.3% | 20 |
| 143d | DFK10 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $23,064 | +$922 +4.0% | 20 |
| 150d | bearbees2 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | −$23 −1.9% | — |
| 156d | Rundown-Schoolhouse | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | −$32 −2.7% | — |
| 158d | uijuutzug87g8i9 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $167,998 | +$3,002 +1.8% | 20 |
| 158d | frtfrtmaus9 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $168,017 | +$2,983 +1.8% | 20 |
| 158d | Soulful-Torso | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,052 | −$152 −1.9% | — |
| 166d | keribit | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,945 | −$55 −1.9% | — |
| 168d | NeH | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $14,980 | −$409 −2.7% | — |
| 175d | thoodr2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,381 | +$119 +2.7% | 20 |
| 179d |  Donkov | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$40 −3.2% | — |
| 184d | TheEvilMoneyDestroyer | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$93 +3.1% | 20 |
| 184d | wlooo | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | +$75 +3.2% | 20 |
| 190d |  Anjun | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$49 +3.7% | 20 |
| 192d | SCbet | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,922 | +$78 +4.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  Donny.T | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,026 | +$93 +4.6% | 20 |
| 202d | Soulful-Torso | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,901 | +$303 +3.8% | 20 |
| 202d | Donny.T | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | −$51 −4.1% | — |
| 204d | Avamax | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,989 | +$72 +3.6% | 20 |
| 204d | Real-Advertisement | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,106 | +$85 +4.1% | 20 |
| 214d | Kajaklala | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | −$61 −5.7% | — |
| 215d |  J3lcExePrd1KE5M2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,401 | +$323 +6.0% | 20 |
| 227d |  yevhenry2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,577 | +$137 +5.3% | 20 |
| 228d | MaxineBrown | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | −$68 −6.0% | — |
| 238d | TerreMoto | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,868 | −$302 −5.1% | — |
| 242d |  bizarroworld | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,222 | −$261 −5.0% | — |
| 248d | believinginsomething | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$42 +4.1% | 20 |
| 257d | 0x8fd3…3ed8 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | −$55 −4.7% | — |
| 257d | 0x8fd3…3ed8 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$49 +4.2% | 20 |
| 258d |  twe2nty | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,343 | +$389 +4.2% | 20 |
| 278d | DegenerateJanet | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,463 | −$77 −5.3% | — |
| 279d | orlovgraf3 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,168 | +$132 +4.2% | 20 |
| 283d | NeH2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $14,619 | +$769 +5.3% | 20 |
| 290d | kevtp2 fills | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,891 | −$152 −5.3% | — |
| 294d | Degeneral2 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,850 | −$150 −5.3% | — |
UniversalCarrier19,649 shares
cataction11,000 shares
EternalDecay10,388 shares
meagainsttheworld8,653 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 5%.
