| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 419 | 56¢ → 63¢ | $262 | +$28 +12% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 1,137 | 30¢ → 20¢ | $223 | −$117 −34% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Ends in 71d | Yes | 2,351 | 19¢ → 9¢ | $212 | −$227 −52% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 232 | 75¢ → 80¢ | $184 | +$11 +6.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 348 | 55¢ → 43¢ | $148 | −$42 −22% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 217 | 46¢ → 65¢ | $141 | +$41 +41% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 666 | 33¢ → 19¢ | $123 | −$99 −44% |
| SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 1,450 | 17¢ → 8¢ | $116 | −$133 −53% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 167 | 60¢ → 70¢ | $116 | +$16 +16% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 340 | 29¢ → 33¢ | $111 | +$11 +11% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 303 | 33¢ → 36¢ | $108 | +$8 +7.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 255 | 47¢ → 36¢ | $90 | −$30 −25% |
| SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 40d | Yes | 314 | 56¢ → 27¢ | $85 | −$91 −52% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 274 | 29¢ → 27¢ | $73 | −$7 −9.3% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 86 | 32¢ → 64¢ | $55 | +$27 +97% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 294 | 17¢ → 17¢ | $50 | +$0 +0.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 588 | 17¢ → 9¢ | $50 | −$50 −50% |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 100 | 55¢ → 50¢ | $49 | −$5 −10.0% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 792 | 8¢ → 6¢ | $44 | −$16 −27% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 53 | 75¢ → 82¢ | $43 | +$3 +8.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 455 | 11¢ → 9¢ | $41 | −$9 −18% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Ends in 252d | Yes | 41 | 86¢ → 99¢ | $40 | +$5 +15% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 199 | 37¢ → 20¢ | $40 | −$33 −45% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 726 | 12¢ → 6¢ | $40 | −$50 −56% |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 160d | Yes | 90 | 33¢ → 39¢ | $35 | +$5 +17% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 100 | 51¢ → 35¢ | $35 | −$17 −32% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 40d | No | 71 | 56¢ → 46¢ | $33 | −$7 −18% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 283 | 14¢ → 12¢ | $32 | −$8 −19% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 3d | Yes | 156 | 64¢ → 19¢ | $29 | −$71 −71% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 38 | 80¢ → 66¢ | $25 | −$5 −18% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 36 | 53¢ → 56¢ | $20 | +$1 +4.8% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | No | 57 | 35¢ → 34¢ | $19 | −$1 −4.3% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 198 | 24¢ → 10¢ | $19 | −$29 −61% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 252d | Yes | 19 | 88¢ → 95¢ | $18 | +$1 +8.1% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 111 | 9¢ → 14¢ | $16 | +$6 +61% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 41 | 41¢ → 37¢ | $15 | −$2 −11% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 71d | Yes | 143 | 7¢ → 9¢ | $12 | +$2 +21% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 138 | 20¢ → 9¢ | $12 | −$16 −58% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 200 | 26¢ → 6¢ | $11 | −$41 −79% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 10d | Yes | 1,275 | 8¢ → 1¢ | $11 | −$91 −89% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 71d | Yes | 100 | 56¢ → 10¢ | $10 | −$46 −82% |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 537 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $9 | −$1 −11% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 71d | No | 26 | 19¢ → 33¢ | $9 | +$4 +74% |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 83 | 60¢ → 7¢ | $6 | −$44 −88% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 18 | 55¢ → 31¢ | $6 | −$4 −44% |
| Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 83 | 1¢ → 3¢ | $2 | +$1 +138% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 71d | Yes | 20 | 49¢ → 10¢ | $2 | −$8 −81% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 40d | No | 37 | 81¢ → 4¢ | $2 | −$28 −95% |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 718 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$7 −95% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 33 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,041 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$210 −100% |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 11 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 279 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$120 −100% |
| Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 185 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 556 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12,400 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,738 −100% |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,423 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$180 −100% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 90 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSettled - ready to redeem | France | 108 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 631 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$187 −100% |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 526 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 77 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 179 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 111 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 21 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 88 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 367 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 750 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 308 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$80 −100% |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 627 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$88 −100% |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,429 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 542 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$187 −100% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,413 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$265 −100% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,673 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 657 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 42 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 476 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,850 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$210 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 43 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 473 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$61 −100% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 647 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 39 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 187 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceSettled - ready to redeem | Norway | 3,557 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$223 −100% |
| Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,000 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSettled - ready to redeem | Argentina | 395 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12,297 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$373 −100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 569 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| France leading at halftime?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 321 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 205 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 366 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will Iceland win on 2026-10-06?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 54 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
