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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $20 | in 69d |
| December 31, 2027 | 21% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 19¢ · 22¢ (3¢) | $5 | in 434d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  DFK | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ | $2,193 | $0 0.0% | 23 |
| 16d |  archaic | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,220 | +$13 +1.1% | 24 |
| 24d | Kwon123 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,502 | +$16 +1.1% | 24 |
| 27d |  VladimirPooper2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $14,594 | +$131 +0.9% | 24 |
| 29d | Muookjh | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes10¢ → 5¢ | $1,500 | −$777 −52% | 43 |
| 31d | Dafri220286 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,130 | +$12 +1.1% | 24 |
| 34d | Bet1nthedark | December 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $4,371 | −$94 −2.2% | — |
| 34d |  SunXiaochuan6 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,003 | −$22 −2.2% | — |
| 35d | 0x8973b817F9b946b8C9D5a328e347eD1629B6dA21 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes9¢ → 5¢ | $2,400 | −$1,101 −46% | 47 |
| 52d | hellokitty117 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,059 | +$23 +2.2% | 25 |
| 58d | Zbinik | December 31, 2026 | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,647 | −$54 −3.3% | — |
| 60d | Stimulating-Power | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,037 | −$11 −1.1% | — |
| 64d | Scoofy-Bubik3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $3,572 | +$82 +2.3% | 25 |
| 67d |  Donny.T | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,683 | −$18 −1.1% | — |
| 73d | gorovi10 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $25,829 | +$1,123 +4.3% | 26 |
| 86d |  meagainsttheworld | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes9¢ → 5¢ | $1,179 | −$524 −44% | 41 |
| 98d | NeH4 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $40,259 | +$3,520 +8.7% | 28 |
| 101d | megafom | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $6,704 | +$219 +3.3% | 25 |
| 106d |  toufik-la-moula | December 31, 2026 | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $5,150 | −$286 −5.6% | — |
| 108d | selador | December 31, 2026 | SellNo90¢ → 95¢ | $1,800 | −$100 −5.6% | — |
| 135d |  diaoscoin | December 31, 2026 | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,019 | −$83 −8.2% | — |
| 143d |  iqdiff | December 31, 2026 | SellNo87¢ → 95¢ | $2,929 | −$272 −9.3% | — |
| 143d | Jchan2947 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,335 | +$95 +7.1% | 28 |
| 144d | Bet1nthedark2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $8,000 | +$674 +8.4% | 28 |
| 145d | iqdiff | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,320 | +$105 +8.0% | 28 |
| 150d |  Tigerofthehood | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $8,147 | +$958 +12% | 30 |
| 150d |  adonpoli | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $2,082 | +$245 +12% | 30 |
| 150d |  LlamaLoco0000 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes15¢ → 5¢ | $1,300 | −$859 −66% | 42 |
| 162d | Dmit | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes14¢ → 5¢ | $1,299 | −$838 −64% | 42 |
| 190d | Denis99 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $2,029 | +$89 +4.4% | 26 |
LlamaLoco000070,938 shares
UniversalCarrier13,691 sharesDonny.T49,645 sharesVladimirPooper18,978 sharesDFK14,318 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 5%.