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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 100% | +1 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 8 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 24 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 8 | 0% | −36 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 9 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 10 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 11 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 12 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 13 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 14 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 24 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33d | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,656 | +$16 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 33d | September 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,098 | −$2 −0.2% | — | |
| 33d | money-printin | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,500 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 33d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $12,907 | +$393 +3.0% | 4 |
| 33d | l39sm34812391js831 | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,139 | +$63 +1.2% | 4 |
| 33d | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,180 | +$73 +1.4% | 4 | |
| 33d | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $28,518 | +$990 +3.5% | 4 | |
| 33d | Fearless-Rear-Chitchat2 fills | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,618 | +$120 +2.1% | 4 |
| 33d | Beyonddream2 fills | September 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,491 | −$140 −3.1% | — |
| 34d | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,120 | +$166 +1.5% | 4 | |
| 34d | September 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $20,924 | −$614 −2.9% | — | |
| 34d | September 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $12,949 | −$567 −4.4% | — | |
| 34d | mpstire-lutuwar | September 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,880 | −$45 −1.2% | — |
| 35d | Kingking178 | September 30 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,669 | −$29 −1.8% | — |
| 36d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | September 30 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,465 | −$90 −1.6% | — |
| 40d | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,765 | +$55 +3.1% | 4 | |
| 40d | Kingking178 | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$53 +3.2% | 4 |
| 41d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,979 | +$74 +3.7% | 4 | |
| 41d | LJa7io23MCv954j | September 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,411 | −$74 −3.1% | — |
| 42d | September 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $10,310 | +$493 +4.8% | 4 | |
| 42d | Rundown-Regard | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,412 | +$77 +3.2% | 4 |
| 43d | 5555five | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | +$43 +3.3% | 4 |
| 44d | raizman | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,593 | +$111 +4.3% | 4 |
| 45d | September 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,912 | −$88 −4.6% | — | |
| 45d | Muffled-Sculptural | September 30 | BuyNo4¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 45d | September 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,059 | −$272 −4.5% | — | |
| 45d | 1hbh | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,422 | +$106 +4.4% | 4 |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,162 | +$48 +4.2% | 4 | |
| 46d | cocobobo | September 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,066 | −$134 −4.4% | — |
| 46d | jklsjdwoqejasdf | September 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,232 | −$91 −4.1% | — |
| 46d | SleeperHunter | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,800 | +$200 +4.2% | 4 |
| 46d | FlyingPlaty | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $19,200 | +$800 +4.2% | 4 |
| 46d | Mustafalafel | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,859 | +$77 +4.2% | 4 |
| 46d | Mustafalafel | September 30 | SellNo4¢ → 0¢ | $1,333 | +$1,333 +100% | — |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,880 | +$120 +4.2% | 4 | |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,800 | +$200 +4.2% | 4 | |
| 46d | cutbum | September 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,188 | −$168 −5.3% | — |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,800 | +$358 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,950 | −$155 −5.3% | — | |
| 46d | iuH1398SI | September 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,191 | −$168 −5.3% | — |
| 46d | UntitledUser12 fills | September 30 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $5,457 | −$563 −10% | — |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $70,019 | −$3,685 −5.3% | — | |
| 46d | 0xefce…4e4a | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$50 +4.2% | 4 |
| 46d | UntitledUser1 | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,267 | +$53 +4.2% | 4 |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,760 | +$240 +4.2% | 4 | |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,942 | −$155 −5.3% | — | |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $43,756 | +$2,256 +5.2% | 4 | |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | −$91 −6.4% | — | |
| 46d | Stonktrader | September 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $16,496 | +$1,053 +6.4% | 4 |
| 46d | Multicolored-Cold-Nut | September 30 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,452 | −$220 −6.4% | — |
| 46d | Dull-Obedience | September 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,276 | −$172 −5.3% | — |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,841 | −$77 −4.2% | — | |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,423 | +$310 +4.2% | 4 | |
| 46d | Multicolored-Cold-Nut | September 30 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,621 | +$1,105 +68% | 7 |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $22,241 | +$12,277 +55% | 4 | |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,827 | +$1,270 +69% | 4 | |
| 46d | September 30 | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $3,280 | −$3,280 −100% | 6 | |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,676 | −$1,213 −72% | — | |
| 46d | September 30 | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | −$840 −72% | — | |
| 46d | Helpful-Sole2 fills | September 30 | SellYes48¢ → 100¢ | $3,277 | −$3,511 −107% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 100%.