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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 100% | 0 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25 bps decrease | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Increase | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 218d | podairpod | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $2,438 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 218d | QMG-CORE | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,125 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | chriszyy3 | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,557 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 218d | MidiMinuit | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,876 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 218d |  taut-dogwood2 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,299 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 219d | influenz.eth3 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,604 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 219d |  StingerT2 fills | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,538 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 219d |  Irboz-sama2 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,957 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 219d | Irboz-sama | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,602 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 219d | TheRealWarMonger | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,200 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 219d | QMG-CORE3 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,532 | +$77 +1.2% | 20 |
| 219d |  Sergsky | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,501 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 219d |  ParaNormal | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,161 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 219d |  Plant2tri | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,456 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 219d |  carySantano2 fills | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,850 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 219d | QMG-CORE | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $4,539 | −$18 −0.4% | — |
| 219d | Randomfool | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,259 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 219d | 0x83df…362f | No change | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | −$10 −0.7% | — |
| 219d | Bukaj08892 fills | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,400 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 221d | rated | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d | rated2 fills | Increase | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,099 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 221d | influenz.eth7 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,426 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 221d |  Ahpo | No change | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,197 | −$18 −0.8% | — |
| 224d | influenz.eth6 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,667 | +$31 +0.3% | 20 |
| 225d |  perfectnostalgia | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 226d | QMG-SCALAR | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 227d | MoronKiler | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,804 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 229d | Ahpo | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,193 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 230d | chriszyy32 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $26,307 | +$377 +1.4% | 20 |
| 230d | Lumbering-WastingNew account | No change | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | −$53 −3.1% | — |
| 230d |  mombil2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,062 | +$370 +12% | 20 |
| 230d | Paltry-WaterspoutNew account | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $11,278 | +$2,190 +19% | 28 |
| 231d | tphhh3 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,735 | +$137 +1.0% | 20 |
| 233d | Occasionalbettor | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,280 | +$35 +1.5% | 20 |
| 252d | zhaoaisha | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,047 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 252d | zhaoaisha | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 258d | spec-tater | No change | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,632 | +$148 +5.6% | 20 |
| 259d | pisch88 | No change | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | +$95 +4.8% | 20 |
| 262d | Ahpo | 50+ bps decrease | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 264d | nonkenny90 | No change | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,778 | +$176 +9.9% | 20 |
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No change means the market gives it about 100%.