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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 83% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 82¢ · 84¢ (2¢) | — | in 177d |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 7% | +1 pts | −2 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | $196 | in 177d |
| Édouard Philippe | 4% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 1¢ · 7¢ (7¢) | — | in 177d |
| David Lisnard | 3% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | — | in 177d |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2% | 0 pts | +1 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | — | in 177d |
| Jordan Bardella | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| François Ruffin | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 177d |
| François Hollande | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| Gabriel Attal | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| Sarah Knafo | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| Dominique de Villepin | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| Christine Lagarde | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| Marine Tondelier | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 177d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  DFK | Marine Le Pen | SellYes85¢ → 83¢ | $3,029 | +$71 +2.4% | — |
| 2d | donthackme | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,008 | −$7 −0.7% | 10 |
| 2d | donthackme | Raphaël Glucksmann | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,011 | −$13 −1.3% | 10 |
| 3d | DFK | Marine Le Pen | BuyYes86¢ → 83¢ | $1,720 | −$60 −3.5% | 10 |
| 11d | Newshound | Marine Le Pen | BuyYes83¢ | $1,323 | −$4 −0.3% | 10 |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly1,833 sharesDFK1,752 shares
Haradwaith660 shares
Donny.T405 sharesA presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 83¢ for Marine Le Pen means the market gives it about 83%.