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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ days | 0% | −38 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4+ days | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 3+ days | 100% | 0 pts | +24 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 7+ days | 0% | −7 pts | −56 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1+ day | 100% | +22 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 6+ days | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 10+ days | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 14+ days | 0% | −3 pts | −28 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 30+ days | 0% | −2 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 2+ days | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 60+ days | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 262d |  iForgor | 7+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $4,856 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | shengkun | 10+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | hesitant | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,283 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | ballers | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,903 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  loooki9 | 7+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $2,413 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $59,959 | −$60 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | sushi1002 fills | 5+ days | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,455 | −$202 −3.7% | — |
| 262d | LL.ETH | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | InvisoHand | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $2,238 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Trustinghorse | 5+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,923 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d |  pepess | 5+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,398 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d |  mannmy2 fills | 5+ days | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,900 | −$955 −24% | — |
| 262d | Michael5289 | 10+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d | mndsr | 5+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d |  ScottyNooo8 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $184,145 | +$16,724 +9.1% | 4 |
| 262d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 5+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,139 | +$14 +0.2% | 4 |
| 262d | 11122 | 7+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,271 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d | third-eye | 10+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,443 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d | third-eye | 6+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $47,015 | +$47 +0.1% | 4 |
| 262d |  big-short | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,695 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 262d | DrNobody13 | 7+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $3,896 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  50StackSteve | 5+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $2,316 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 262d | tgglZ | 10+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,677 | −$86 −0.8% | — |
| 262d |  aenews2 | 5+ days | BuyNo100¢ | $24,875 | +$125 +0.5% | 4 |
| 262d | Lukashopphopp | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 262d | unwillingly-public8 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $75,179 | +$13,249 +18% | 4 |
| 262d | 0xeb9d…e31b2 fills | 5+ days | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,747 | −$293 −11% | — |
| 262d |  0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f3 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $54,107 | +$659 +1.2% | 4 |
| 262d |  kaemari | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,944 | −$56 −1.1% | — |
| 262d |  TheAugur | 6+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,833 | +$20 +0.2% | 4 |
| 262d | le-chiffree2 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,266 | +$322 +3.9% | 4 |
| 262d |  DirkDiggler67 | 5+ days | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,141 | +$35 +1.6% | 4 |
| 262d |  TpRiskTaker | 5+ days | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | −$25 −2.0% | — |
| 262d | FlyingPlaty4 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $27,891 | +$1,741 +6.2% | 4 |
| 262d | InvisoHand | 5+ days | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,189 | +$51 +2.3% | 4 |
| 262d | Kevindoto3 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $35,523 | +$480 +1.4% | 4 |
| 262d | third-eye2 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $31,405 | +$664 +2.1% | 4 |
| 262d |  mr.ozi7 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $29,545 | +$7,393 +25% | 4 |
| 262d | Incomparable-Attitude | 5+ days | BuyYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,179 | −$1,179 −100% | 5 |
| 262d | Woody0115 | 5+ days | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,773 | −$31 −1.7% | — |
| 262d | bartholomew31 | 7+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $5,655 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | 881112 | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $36,885 | −$557 −1.5% | — |
| 262d |  SusanWarrenHR | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,930 | −$70 −1.4% | — |
| 262d | ScottyNooo | 6+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $13,712 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 262d |  studmuffin69692 fills | 60+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $7,927 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | alvinnwins | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$14 −1.4% | — |
| 262d |  Erka-RoadTo1M | 6+ days | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,869 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 262d | Erka-RoadTo1M | 5+ days | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,566 | +$80 +1.2% | 4 |
| 262d | Flawed-Factor | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$16 −1.5% | — |
| 262d |  49023809234904 | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,462 | −$37 −1.5% | — |
| 262d |  The-Joker | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,728 | −$72 −1.5% | — |
| 262d |  debased | 6+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,018 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 262d |  oliintoon | 5+ days | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,361 | −$52 −1.6% | — |
| 262d |  Zhaowei | 5+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,312 | −$21 −0.9% | — |
| 262d | oliintoon | 5+ days | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,961 | +$16 +0.8% | 4 |
| 262d |  Dios777 | 5+ days | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,075 | +$31 +0.8% | 4 |
| 262d | Dios777 | 10+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $4,075 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Barack.Obama | 10+ days | SellNo>99¢ | $1,307 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | rooivalk6 fills | 5+ days | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $41,239 | +$3,687 +8.9% | 4 |
| 262d | rooivalk3 fills | 7+ days | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,013 | −$33 −0.5% | — |
ImJustKen344,323 shares
estrume32,390 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the government is shut down for the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having begun when the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding package required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown begins by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/), information from official U.S. Government sources, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 5+ days means the market gives it about 0%.