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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 100% | −4 pts | −3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 2 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 6 | 0% | −4 pts | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | −4 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 18 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 233d |  DiamondHands11 | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,012 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 233d | DiamondHands11 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,012 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  kinderSman | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,951 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 233d |  ScottyNooo | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 233d | chickenwatermelon | March 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,588 | +$98 +6.2% | 20 |
| 233d | wan123 | March 31 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,959 | +$505 +13% | 20 |
| 233d | 0xB29304109238401 | March 31 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $4,095 | +$1,712 +42% | 20 |
| 237d | uehevxjauqyb | February 28 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,290 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d | pantomime | February 28 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,149 | −$21 −0.4% | — |
| 239d | pantomime | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,865 | +$108 +2.2% | 21 |
| 239d |  LevonS | February 28 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$37 +3.6% | 21 |
| 239d |  upont6 fills | February 28 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $19,919 | +$3,399 +17% | 21 |
| 240d | 00000000o | February 28 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,537 | −$61 −4.0% | — |
| 240d | Rickz884 fills | February 28 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $6,960 | +$1,131 +16% | 21 |
| 241d |  ClaudeAI4 fills | February 28 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $20,089 | +$6,880 +34% | 20 |
| 242d | Iamngmi | February 28 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | +$460 +31% | 22 |
| 245d | singularityman | March 31 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,528 | +$472 +31% | 22 |
| 245d | PapaTrump10 | February 28 | SellYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,285 | +$1,285 +100% | — |
| 245d | ClaudeAI2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo15¢ → 0¢ | $2,718 | −$2,718 −100% | 27 |
| 246d |  FedMoneyPrinter | March 31 | BuyNo15¢ → 0¢ | $1,267 | −$1,267 −100% | 22 |
| 246d |  .ethguy | February 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | poorsob | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $58,620 | +$59 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | .ethguy2 fills | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,475 | +$26 +0.3% | 20 |
| 246d |  scout4 fills | February 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $47,443 | −$159 −0.3% | — |
| 246d | Headscratcher | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | upont | February 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,280 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 246d | Rickz88 | February 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $26,411 | −$79 −0.3% | — |
| 246d | Complex-TrainingNew account | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,227 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 246d | kwsmai | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,685 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 247d |  thegreengem | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $97,957 | +$117 +0.1% | 20 |
| 247d |  PredictionYogi | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,664 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 247d | omegonx | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 247d | upont6 fills | February 18 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $18,437 | +$977 +5.3% | 20 |
| 247d | anoin123 | February 18 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,970 | −$30 −0.3% | — |
| 247d | PapaTrump10 | February 28 | BuyYes31¢ → 0¢ | $1,968 | −$1,968 −100% | 22 |
| 247d |  ComingBack | February 18 | SellNo100¢ | $3,199 | −$16 −0.5% | — |
| 247d | Rickz882 fills | February 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,725 | +$68 +0.9% | 20 |
| 247d |  chungguskhan2 fills | February 28 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,634 | −$2,634 −100% | 23 |
| 248d | ComingBack3 fills | February 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,700 | +$133 +1.2% | 20 |
| 248d |  ImJustKen | March 31 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | +$1,139 +91% | 20 |
| 249d | ClaudeAI | February 18 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,932 | +$26 +1.4% | 20 |
| 250d | singularityman | February 28 | BuyYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,409 | −$1,409 −100% | 20 |
| 250d |  Bertapotamous | February 18 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,136 | +$186 +8.7% | 21 |
| 251d | ScottyNooo | February 18 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,742 | +$762 +8.7% | 21 |
| 252d | Eatpraylove | February 28 | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 20 |
| 252d | 99problems123 | February 28 | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,405 | −$1,405 −100% | 20 |
| 253d | ComingBack | February 28 | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$2,538 +85% | 20 |
| 253d |  ParaNormal | February 18 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | +$216 +14% | 21 |
| 259d | upont2 fills | February 6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,995 | +$73 +0.8% | 20 |
| 259d | ComingBack3 fills | February 6 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$552 +17% | 20 |
| 260d |  AcctToBeRetired | February 6 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,062 | +$177 +2.5% | 20 |
| 261d | DrNobody13 | February 6 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,745 | +$297 +6.3% | 20 |
| 262d | GummiMummi | February 28 | BuyYes74¢ → 0¢ | $2,351 | −$2,351 −100% | 20 |
| 262d |  J.D.L | February 6 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,227 | +$126 +5.7% | 20 |
| 263d |  zb8 | February 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,956 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | zxc368 | February 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | Candid-Pate | February 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | 0fb15080c50ce5251cffa7fa08f2eb612bf725c3 | February 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,000 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | aviato | February 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | PredictionYogi | February 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,668 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
ClaudeAI23,965 sharesFedMoneyPrinter8,495 shares
slownick5,088 shares
HanSooyoung642 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Only a nomination message that nominates Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. A nomination solely to be a Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not qualify. A joint nomination both for membership on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and for Chair of the Federal Reserve will count. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 100%.