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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 64% | −1 pts | +13 pts | 63¢ · 64¢ (1¢) | $5 | in 1165d |
| Hendrik Wüst | 14% | — | — | 13¢ · 14¢ (1¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Alice Weidel | 9% | +1 pts | +5 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Boris Pistorius | 4% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Markus Söder | 4% | — | +2 pts | 2¢ · 6¢ (4¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Lars Klingbeil | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Carsten Linnemann | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Felix Banaszak | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 1165d |
| Jens Spahn | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 1165d |
| Tino Chrupalla | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 1165d |
| Katharina Dröge | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 1165d |
| Heidi Reichinnek | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 1165d |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 1165d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d | hynix | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | SellNo39¢ → 37¢ | $1,085 | +$63 +5.8% | — |
| 7d |  vinii | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | BuyNo43¢ → 37¢ | $3,039 | −$443 −15% | 26 |
| 7d | vinii2 fills | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | BuyYes55¢ → 64¢ | $6,413 | +$1,052 +16% | 24 |
| 7d | nedsta | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | SellYes58¢ → 64¢ | $1,248 | −$116 −9.3% | — |
| 22d | nedsta | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | BuyYes71¢ → 64¢ | $1,853 | −$193 −10% | 23 |
| 30d |  mombil | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | BuyYes48¢ → 64¢ | $2,352 | +$775 +33% | 24 |
| 30d | mombil | Hendrik Wüst | BuyNo75¢ → 87¢ | $1,751 | +$257 +15% | 4 |
| 32d | flawfence | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | BuyNo54¢ → 37¢ | $1,225 | −$395 −32% | 24 |
| 34d | TypeShi | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | BuyNo47¢ → 37¢ | $2,000 | −$441 −22% | 24 |
mombil4,947 shares
Tenebrus71,286 shares
StarMaster1,000 shares
RepublicOfChina220 shares
FrozenParasite175 shares
Haradwaith981 shares
smellyEllie730 shares
Copezilla426 sharesFriedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 64¢ for No Next Chancellor before 2028 means the market gives it about 64%.