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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Homan | 6% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 70d |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 4% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Adam Schiff | 3% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| James Clapper | 8% | +1 pts | +3 pts | 6¢ · 9¢ (3¢) | — | in 70d |
| Joe Biden | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Letitia James | 5% | — | — | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Loretta Lynch | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Bill Clinton | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Lisa Cook | 4% | — | — | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Pam Bondi | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 70d |
| Susan Rice | 6% | — | −4 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 70d |
| Kash Patel | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 70d |
| John Kerry | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 70d |
| Candace Owens | 6% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 10¢ (9¢) | — | in 70d |
| Gavin Newsom | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $240 | in 70d |
| Anthony Fauci | 7% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $202 | in 70d |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 4% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $100 | in 70d |
| Brandon Johnson | 7% | −3 pts | −2 pts | 5¢ · 8¢ (3¢) | $41.9 | in 70d |
| Lee Jun-seok | 25% | −1 pts | +15 pts | 2¢ · 48¢ (45¢) | $40 | in 70d |
| Barack Obama | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $19 | in 70d |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 15% | −3 pts | −2 pts | 11¢ · 19¢ (8¢) | $16.9 | in 70d |
| John Brennan | 22% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 20¢ · 23¢ (3¢) | $12 | in 70d |
| James Comey | 10% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 10¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $6.79 | in 70d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  bigdihhh888 | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo93¢ | $1,139 | +$2 +0.2% | 25 |
| 1d |  tetrase | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo92¢ → 93¢ | $1,911 | +$17 +0.9% | 25 |
| 5d |  paddaa | John Brennan | SellNo78¢ → 79¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 9d |  DFK2 fills | Hillary Clinton | SellNo97¢ → 99¢ | $2,989 | −$53 −1.8% | — |
| 30d | DFK | Anthony Fauci | SellNo92¢ → 93¢ | $6,828 | −$96 −1.4% | — |
| 59d | Jjw | Anthony Fauci | SellNo89¢ → 93¢ | $3,976 | −$187 −4.7% | — |
| 62d |  DEGENKHAN | Joe Biden | BuyNo98¢ → 99¢ | $1,214 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 67d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | John Brennan | BuyNo72¢ → 79¢ | $1,096 | +$94 +8.6% | 38 |
| 69d | DFK | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $1,760 | +$106 +6.0% | 28 |
| 80d | 0x6fc8…d0db2 fills | Anthony Fauci | SellNo88¢ → 93¢ | $2,956 | −$166 −5.6% | — |
| 81d |  Belgaron | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo89¢ → 93¢ | $2,667 | +$132 +4.9% | 27 |
| 82d | Sniveling-Passion | Anthony Fauci | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $1,752 | +$114 +6.5% | 28 |
| 82d | KiernanMeister | John Brennan | BuyYes28¢ → 22¢ | $1,285 | −$283 −22% | 41 |
| 82d | KiernanMeister | Anthony Fauci | BuyYes12¢ → 7¢ | $1,026 | −$472 −46% | 40 |
| 88d |  FortunatelyFestive | Gavin Newsom | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,158 | −$29 −2.5% | — |
| 114d | DFK2 fills | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,979 | +$108 +3.6% | 24 |
| 164d | Fineeeeee | Tom Homan | BuyNo76¢ → 94¢ | $1,875 | +$439 +23% | 20 |
| 170d | FortunatelyFestive | Gavin Newsom | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,097 | +$90 +8.2% | 27 |
Gohst4,278 shares
peakyman80 shares
Hyperlong393 shares
MrNoItAll369 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for Tom Homan means the market gives it about 6%.