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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | — | — | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $342 | in 434d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Frayed-CompulsionNew account | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo91¢ | $4,040 | −$22 −0.5% | 31 |
| 4d | lion4492 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $9,316 | −$267 −2.9% | — |
| 6d | whatuppp | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $9,070 | −$50 −0.6% | — |
| 7d | Fkbi | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $2,340 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 8d | momo5134 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 91¢ | $6,596 | +$329 +5.0% | 29 |
| 9d | aosdijf2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes10¢ | $2,890 | +$24 +0.8% | — |
| 15d | Easy-Going-Due | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $3,348 | +$38 +1.1% | 27 |
| 15d | Imperfect-Council3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyYes14¢ → 10¢ | $7,365 | −$2,497 −34% | 54 |
| 15d | Imperfect-Council | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes10¢ | $3,165 | +$232 +7.3% | — |
| 17d | tms20164 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $9,781 | −$401 −4.1% | — |
| 20d | Content-RuckusNew account | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $1,000 | +$6 +0.6% | 30 |
| 20d | NeH6 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $106,719 | +$1,902 +1.8% | 27 |
| 22d | walrusgrk | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $4,224 | +$120 +2.8% | 28 |
| 25d | Mriz96 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,540 | +$44 +2.8% | 28 |
| 26d |  suraxy2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $3,492 | −$128 −3.7% | — |
| 26d | qimalan | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyYes12¢ → 10¢ | $2,400 | −$500 −21% | 46 |
| 30d | Advanced-Muscatel | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $1,958 | +$33 +1.7% | 27 |
| 33d | Twei | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,056 | −$30 −2.8% | — |
| 35d | Unkempt-Argument | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $2,747 | −$78 −2.8% | — |
| 36d |  zxdfbdfgngcxv | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,760 | −$50 −2.8% | — |
| 42d | bysittingnottrading9 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $107,614 | +$2,403 +2.2% | 28 |
| 42d | Sunbe | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $2,107 | −$60 −2.8% | — |
| 42d | Unkempt-Argument | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $2,778 | +$47 +1.7% | 27 |
| 43d | aosdijf | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyYes11¢ → 10¢ | $3,245 | −$442 −14% | 49 |
| 51d | make888 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,099 | −$31 −2.8% | — |
| 52d | CARXE | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,760 | −$50 −2.8% | — |
| 53d | Beneficial-Statistic | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $3,489 | −$99 −2.8% | — |
| 60d | CateinZiru | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $3,115 | +$53 +1.7% | 27 |
| 60d |  realxijinping3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $16,372 | −$558 −3.4% | — |
| 62d | artemis-event2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes11¢ → 10¢ | $8,989 | +$1,043 +12% | — |
| 63d | pengpeng32 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes12¢ → 10¢ | $1,093 | +$228 +21% | — |
| 63d |  i400 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $17,101 | −$688 −4.0% | — |
| 64d | trader2e1 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 91¢ | $1,200 | +$48 +4.0% | 29 |
| 64d |  hdlisme-acc2 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $27,006 | −$1,128 −4.2% | — |
| 64d |  ferzamo | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,600 | +$45 +2.8% | 28 |
| 65d | xiaopxiong | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $3,018 | −$121 −4.0% | — |
| 65d | Vapid-Zen | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $2,500 | +$71 +2.8% | 28 |
| 65d | xiaopxiong | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $12,211 | +$347 +2.8% | 28 |
| 66d |  0xrc | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $12,180 | −$490 −4.0% | — |
| 66d | lion4493 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 91¢ | $8,100 | +$371 +4.6% | 29 |
| 67d | Beneficial-Statistic2 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $3,420 | +$115 +3.4% | 30 |
| 67d | artemis-event5 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyYes13¢ → 10¢ | $10,000 | −$2,614 −26% | 56 |
| 70d | market7D39 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $1,711 | −$69 −4.0% | — |
| 71d | agggr | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,467 | −$42 −2.8% | — |
| 73d |  winforretire14 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 91¢ | $208,385 | +$11,179 +5.4% | 29 |
| 75d | lenny4878 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 91¢ | $1,500 | +$25 +1.7% | 27 |
| 82d | sailg | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 91¢ | $5,412 | +$218 +4.0% | 29 |
| 82d | wabawhje | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes13¢ → 10¢ | $1,943 | +$523 +27% | — |
| 85d | i4002 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 91¢ | $4,172 | +$227 +5.4% | 29 |
| 85d |  getrichall | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 91¢ | $2,983 | −$156 −5.2% | — |
| 85d |  jinjinyou | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 91¢ | $2,150 | −$113 −5.2% | — |
| 85d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 91¢ | $1,101 | −$71 −6.5% | — |
| 85d |  mombil3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 91¢ | $5,721 | +$346 +6.0% | 30 |
| 85d |  smallpig21 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo78¢ → 91¢ | $439,376 | −$69,501 −16% | — |
| 86d | smallpig52 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 91¢ | $447,899 | +$17,682 +3.9% | 29 |
| 86d | DualDelta | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes11¢ → 10¢ | $1,412 | +$193 +14% | — |
| 86d | realxijinping3 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 91¢ | $14,088 | +$885 +6.3% | 30 |
| 87d |  SongXiaoFeng4 fills | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $8,127 | −$337 −4.1% | — |
| 87d |  NotMasterFan | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 91¢ | $1,153 | +$60 +5.2% | 29 |
| 92d | 0x4e84…ef69 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SellYes11¢ → 10¢ | $1,079 | +$147 +14% | — |
SlashClam40,000 shareswinforretire248,731 shares
J3lcExePrd1KE5M46,332 shares
Nadmi20,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 10%.