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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12% | — | +3 pts | 11¢ · 13¢ (2¢) | $55.9 | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18d | pakukudolphi | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 88¢ | $2,771 | +$108 +3.9% | — |
| 83d |  png1024 | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 88¢ | $1,494 | +$33 +2.2% | — |
| 115d | TrangNgo | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo100¢ | $1,725 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 144d | Manzana6982 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,900 | +$366 +9.4% | 20 |
| 144d | Manzana698 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,001 | −$162 −8.1% | — |
| 148d | IbnKhaldun | December 31 | BuyNo63¢ → 88¢ | $2,000 | +$794 +40% | 40 |
| 148d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $6,057 | +$1,177 +19% | 20 |
| 151d |  0xOTd | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$84 +8.2% | 20 |
| 153d | denizz | December 31 | BuyNo66¢ → 88¢ | $1,637 | +$550 +34% | 40 |
| 153d | denizz | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,516 | +$192 +13% | 20 |
| 206d | exathomas | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,504 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 209d | dube | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 214d | DerekWeber2446 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | +$204 +19% | 20 |
| 215d | Huludubu | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,874 | +$126 +2.1% | 20 |
| 217d | AmandaMiller2862 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,272 | +$225 +18% | 20 |
| 227d | cashy | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,131 | +$89 +4.2% | 20 |
| 233d |  MEPP2 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,370 | +$207 +8.7% | 20 |
| 235d | WING0 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,926 | +$315 +11% | 20 |
| 269d | BradMccoy9328 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$237 −22% | — |
| 269d | MatthewVelasquez8348 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$261 +22% | 20 |
| 269d | cosmixcasino | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | −$259 −22% | — |
| 269d | cosmixcasino | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$259 +22% | 20 |
| 296d |  Tenebrus7 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,150 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | e5fd19 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,498 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d |  KazLC | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,862 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 359d |  MisTKy32 fills | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,655 | +$310 +6.7% | 20 |
| 359d | phsr | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$23 −2.2% | — |
| 369d | nitsangalon | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,059 | +$178 +8.7% | 20 |
MEPP2,800 shares
Drunken-Mentat761 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 12¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 12%.