| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 1,000 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $984 | +$44 +4.7% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 1,000 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $956 | +$36 +3.9% |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 187 | 82¢ → 96¢ | $180 | +$27 +17% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 172 | 31¢ → 97¢ | $167 | +$114 +213% |
| Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?Ends in 189d | Yes | 91 | 77¢ → 89¢ | $81 | +$11 +16% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 108 | 72¢ → 71¢ | $76 | −$2 −2.1% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 51 | 55¢ → 97¢ | $50 | +$22 +77% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 52 | 55¢ → 88¢ | $46 | +$17 +60% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 42 | 52¢ → 81¢ | $34 | +$12 +56% |
| US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 39 | 71¢ → 86¢ | $34 | +$6 +21% |
| Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 42 | 73¢ → 81¢ | $34 | +$3 +10% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 187 | 53¢ → 17¢ | $31 | −$68 −69% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 29 | 34¢ → >99¢ | $29 | +$19 +194% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 49 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $26 | +$1 +2.9% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 24 | 47¢ → 98¢ | $23 | +$12 +111% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 29 | 56¢ → 72¢ | $21 | +$5 +28% |
| Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 3d | Yes | 26 | 58¢ → 81¢ | $21 | +$6 +39% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 45 | 51¢ → 47¢ | $21 | −$2 −8.8% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 35 | 75¢ → 60¢ | $21 | −$5 −20% |
| Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Ends in 159d | Yes | 26 | 75¢ → 77¢ | $20 | +$1 +2.7% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 73 | 19¢ → 27¢ | $20 | +$6 +43% |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 29 | 53¢ → 68¢ | $19 | +$4 +28% |
| Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Ends in 8d | No | 19 | 83¢ → 99¢ | $19 | +$3 +19% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 25 | 47¢ → 71¢ | $17 | +$6 +51% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 19 | 29¢ → 86¢ | $17 | +$11 +197% |
| Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be below 0%?Ends in 40d | No | 20 | 73¢ → 84¢ | $17 | +$2 +14% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 434d | Yes | 46 | 47¢ → 36¢ | $17 | −$5 −23% |
| Will StepFun have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 16 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $16 | +$1 +5.1% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 YouTube ads revenue be above $11.8B?Ends in 4d | No | 18 | 85¢ → 86¢ | $15 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 22 | 68¢ → 70¢ | $15 | +$0 +2.2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 17 | 35¢ → 83¢ | $14 | +$8 +137% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 27, 2026?Ends in 4d | No | 15 | 87¢ → 82¢ | $13 | −$1 −5.7% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 12 | 29¢ → 93¢ | $11 | +$8 +221% |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 12 | 75¢ → 92¢ | $11 | +$2 +22% |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 3d | Yes | 13 | 59¢ → 86¢ | $11 | +$3 +45% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +34% |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | Yes | 16 | 86¢ → 64¢ | $10 | −$4 −26% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 19 | 45¢ → 54¢ | $10 | +$2 +19% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 21 | 54¢ → 49¢ | $10 | −$1 −9.8% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 15 | 54¢ → 66¢ | $10 | +$2 +21% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 37 | 13¢ → 26¢ | $9 | +$5 +100% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 10 | 10¢ → 83¢ | $9 | +$8 +730% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 25 | 21¢ → 34¢ | $9 | +$3 +62% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 25 | 53¢ → 33¢ | $8 | −$5 −39% |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 33 | 44¢ → 24¢ | $8 | −$7 −46% |
| Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?Ends in 189d | Yes | 31 | 26¢ → 24¢ | $7 | −$1 −9.6% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 12 | 54¢ → 61¢ | $7 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 7 | 48¢ → 98¢ | $7 | +$4 +103% |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 219 | 19¢ → 3¢ | $7 | −$35 −83% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 12 | 49¢ → 56¢ | $7 | +$1 +13% |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 8 | 52¢ → 79¢ | $7 | +$2 +52% |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 56¢ → 69¢ | $7 | +$1 +23% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 8 | 47¢ → 74¢ | $6 | +$2 +57% |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 24 | 27¢ → 26¢ | $6 | −$0 −3.8% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 13 | 49¢ → 45¢ | $6 | −$1 −8.2% |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 40 | 25¢ → 14¢ | $6 | −$4 −45% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 7 | 42¢ → 79¢ | $6 | +$3 +87% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 72 | 48¢ → 7¢ | $5 | −$29 −85% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 55¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$2 +82% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 54¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$2 +85% |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?Ends ended | No | 5 | 21¢ → 96¢ | $5 | +$4 +359% |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?Ends in 39d | No | 5 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.9% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 5 | 84¢ → 93¢ | $5 | +$0 +11% |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 5 | 48¢ → 93¢ | $5 | +$2 +93% |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 5 | 37¢ → 90¢ | $4 | +$3 +142% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 20 | 52¢ → 23¢ | $4 | −$6 −57% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 267 | 53¢ → 2¢ | $4 | −$137 −97% |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 25 | 11¢ → 18¢ | $4 | +$2 +57% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 5 | 92¢ → 81¢ | $4 | −$1 −12% |
| Benedict Wong as Wong?Ends in 250d | Yes | 5 | 72¢ → 78¢ | $4 | +$0 +8.3% |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 5 | 37¢ → 78¢ | $4 | +$2 +109% |
| Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?Ends in 5d | Yes | 10 | 31¢ → 37¢ | $4 | +$1 +21% |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 15 | 40¢ → 25¢ | $4 | −$2 −38% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 5 | 65¢ → 72¢ | $4 | +$0 +11% |
| Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?Ends in 65d | Yes | 21 | 17¢ → 16¢ | $3 | −$0 −5.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 21 | 10¢ → 15¢ | $3 | +$1 +46% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 16 | 55¢ → 19¢ | $3 | −$6 −65% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 5 | 36¢ → 61¢ | $3 | +$1 +69% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 24 | 16¢ → 12¢ | $3 | −$1 −25% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 37¢ → 28¢ | $3 | −$1 −23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ETEnds ended | Up | 5 | 45¢ → 56¢ | $3 | +$1 +26% |
| Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?Ends in 9d | Yes | 5 | 27¢ → 55¢ | $3 | +$1 +104% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 33 | 48¢ → 8¢ | $3 | −$13 −83% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 7 | 42¢ → 33¢ | $2 | −$1 −23% |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 10 | 15¢ → 24¢ | $2 | +$1 +60% |
| Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 10 | 36¢ → 23¢ | $2 | −$1 −38% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 101 | 5¢ → 2¢ | $2 | −$3 −64% |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 33 | 14¢ → 6¢ | $2 | −$3 −59% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 517 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$2 −56% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 17¢ | $2 | −$1 −31% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 16 | 36¢ → 11¢ | $2 | −$4 −71% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 41 | 13¢ → 4¢ | $2 | −$4 −69% |
| Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027?Ends in 100d | No | 5 | 29¢ → 33¢ | $2 | +$0 +14% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 6 | 58¢ → 27¢ | $2 | −$2 −53% |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 6 | 54¢ → 23¢ | $1 | −$2 −58% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 14 | 15¢ → 9¢ | $1 | −$1 −37% |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 27 | 21¢ → 5¢ | $1 | −$4 −77% |
| Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 434d | Yes | 69 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $1 | −$0 −7.5% |
| Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | Yes | 5 | 32¢ → 23¢ | $1 | −$0 −28% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 5 | 88¢ → 23¢ | $1 | −$3 −74% |
