| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 7,809 | 10¢ → 8¢ | $601 | −$174 −22% |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 163d | Yes | 819 | 33¢ → 41¢ | $336 | +$67 +25% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 175 | 57¢ → 61¢ | $106 | +$6 +6.1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 125 | 17¢ → 76¢ | $94 | +$73 +352% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 549 | 26¢ → 13¢ | $69 | −$74 −52% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 192 | 52¢ → 28¢ | $54 | −$46 −46% |
| Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?Ends in 439d | Yes | 265 | 19¢ → 19¢ | $50 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 500 | 10¢ → 10¢ | $48 | −$3 −5.0% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 224 | 15¢ → 21¢ | $47 | +$14 +44% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | No | 122 | 41¢ → 37¢ | $45 | −$5 −11% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 642 | 7¢ → 6¢ | $35 | −$8 −19% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 110 | 16¢ → 25¢ | $27 | +$9 +54% |
| Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?Ends in 439d | Yes | 190 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $26 | −$1 −3.6% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 110 | 15¢ → 23¢ | $25 | +$9 +54% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 789 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $21 | +$6 +37% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 105 | 33¢ → 15¢ | $16 | −$19 −55% |
| Will NTE: Neverness to Everness win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?Ends in 74d | Yes | 94 | 13¢ → 10¢ | $9 | −$3 −21% |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 2,159 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $8 | −$10 −56% |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 456 | 11¢ → 2¢ | $7 | −$43 −86% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 435 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$7 −81% |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 387 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$7 −85% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 331 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$5 −80% |
| Will SpaceXAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 170 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$4 −94% |
| Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 99 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$3 −98% |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,688 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 251 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 51¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 17 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 35 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,594 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$61 −100% |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 208 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 194 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 107 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 196 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 138 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 56 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$24 −100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 68 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 83 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 22 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 50 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will Trump Insult Xi this week?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 67 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| Will Dusan Vlahovic join Besiktas?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 151 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$57 −100% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 75 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 80 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 137 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 34 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 147 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 9?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 23 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,333 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 714 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will DeepSeek be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 154 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 50 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 77 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 91 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$27 −100% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 36 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 235 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 125 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 216 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$44 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 13 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 470 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 154 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 633 | 41¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$262 −100% |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 53 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 199 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 28 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,305 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 300 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 111 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 429 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$90 −100% |
| Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 64 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 333 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 75 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 36 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 28 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 503 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 46 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Will Kai or Speed die to a piglin?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 162 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$62 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 150 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,563 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| McDonald's CEO out by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 136 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 267 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 773 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$84 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 118 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
