| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,237 | 45¢ → 14¢ | $167 | −$386 −70% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 123 | 81¢ → 94¢ | $116 | +$16 +16% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 128 | 78¢ → 82¢ | $104 | +$4 +4.5% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 104 | 48¢ → 51¢ | $53 | +$3 +7.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 71 | 70¢ → 74¢ | $53 | +$3 +5.0% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 135 | 34¢ → 33¢ | $44 | −$2 −4.4% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 172 | 29¢ → 22¢ | $37 | −$13 −26% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 125 | 56¢ → 20¢ | $24 | −$46 −65% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 69d | Yes | 149 | 61¢ → 16¢ | $24 | −$67 −74% |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?Ends in 250d | No | 33 | 45¢ → 71¢ | $24 | +$9 +58% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 129 | 23¢ → 17¢ | $22 | −$8 −27% |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 13 | 59¢ → 80¢ | $11 | +$3 +36% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | Yes | 38 | 40¢ → 19¢ | $7 | −$8 −54% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 12 | 63¢ → 10¢ | $1 | −$6 −84% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 167 | 15¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$25 −99% |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 42 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 133 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 24?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 22 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 122 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 154 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 67 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 195 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 31 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 21?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 27 | 38¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 18?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 21 | 48¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 5?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 14 | 69¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 41 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 34 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 125 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 25 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 192 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 86 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 39 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 154 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 143 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 371 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 16 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 69 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 71 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 11?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 27 | 37¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 4?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 55 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 123 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 45 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 133 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 72 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 866 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$140 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 91 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 15 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 33 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 31 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 20¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 19 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 78 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 112 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 48 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 28?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 55 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 8?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 23 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 63 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 22 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 25 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 14 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 5?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 67 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 57 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 333 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on August 6?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 202 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 133 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 17?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 14 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 249 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 27 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 11?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on July 26?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 191 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 90 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 26 | 39¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 250 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 38 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 69 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 139 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 9?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 56 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 18 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 34 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 14?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11 | 87¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 10?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 21?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 77 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 11?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 19 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 46 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 15 | 66¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
