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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| June 15 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85d | M2sx92kljs42 | July 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,011 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 90d | wopperdopper | July 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,324 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 93d |  MEPP | July 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,358 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 95d | johnlansford3949 | July 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 95d | thoodr3 fills | July 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $20,219 | +$888 +4.4% | 20 |
| 96d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | July 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 97d | enrico-vasaio | July 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,339 | +$26 +1.1% | 20 |
| 101d | 0xbF4d2023823 fills | July 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $5,361 | +$1,981 +37% | 20 |
| 104d | 0xbF4d202382 | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | −$29 −2.5% | — |
| 107d |  RolandDrump | July 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,460 | −$66 −2.7% | — |
| 108d | Dearest-Cowbell-Crunch | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$25 −2.5% | — |
| 109d | DiaMat | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,476 | −$24 −1.6% | — |
| 109d | 0x3056…36c6 | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,487 | −$73 −1.6% | — |
| 109d | browne | July 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,235 | −$34 −1.5% | — |
| 110d | Helpful-Headache-Scalp | July 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,444 | −$56 −1.6% | — |
| 111d |  tetrose3 fills | July 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $63,970 | +$3,037 +4.7% | 20 |
| 113d | aiwar | July 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,944 | −$56 −2.9% | — |
| 114d | Sniveling-Passion | July 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$59 +3.9% | 20 |
| 115d | Faraway-Tweet | July 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,901 | −$99 −5.2% | — |
| 115d | lordedward | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,139 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 116d | tetrose6 fills | June 30 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $23,340 | +$4,231 +18% | 20 |
| 116d | GCNO1 | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,243 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 116d | Mrhack210291 | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 116d | Cultured-Guilt2 fills | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,194 | −$28 −0.5% | — |
| 116d | ChikaBoomPow2 fills | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,488 | −$42 −1.7% | — |
| 116d | 0xe4df…39d9 | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,438 | −$50 −0.6% | — |
| 116d | Trader1772 fills | June 30 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $11,743 | −$747 −6.4% | — |
| 116d | lukny1410 | June 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,140 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 117d | xt0 | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | −$23 −1.5% | — |
| 117d | RolandDrump | July 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,814 | +$186 +6.6% | 20 |
| 117d | Helpful-Headache-Scalp | July 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,050 | +$260 +8.5% | 21 |
| 117d | Shivin1204 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | −$23 −1.6% | — |
| 117d | Chelseaone | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,530 | −$203 −1.2% | — |
| 118d | dontkn0w | July 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | +$144 +9.9% | 20 |
| 118d | ramansme | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,411 | −$13 −0.9% | — |
| 118d | chillballer | June 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,125 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 118d | Croc78 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | −$19 −1.6% | — |
| 118d |  Udonsan2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,152 | +$71 +2.3% | 20 |
| 118d | Forked-Overshoot | July 31 | BuyYes12¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 20 |
| 119d | browne3 fills | July 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $10,239 | +$2,360 +23% | 20 |
| 119d | Cool-Initialise7 fills | June 30 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $26,327 | −$2,421 −9.2% | — |
| 119d | groth | June 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | +$34 +2.0% | 20 |
| 119d | markiewarkie | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | −$26 −2.2% | — |
| 119d | oompaloompaa | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,935 | −$65 −2.2% | — |
| 119d | browne4 fills | June 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $17,169 | −$533 −3.1% | — |
| 119d | Arashi9527 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,769 | −$130 −2.2% | — |
| 119d |  Kokoel | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,974 | −$44 −2.2% | — |
| 119d | Tall-Suspension | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,374 | −$248 −2.2% | — |
| 119d | 20260601 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,518 | −$25 −1.6% | — |
| 119d | 0xbF4d2023822 fills | June 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,009 | −$126 −3.1% | — |
| 119d |  nukecoin-3 fills | June 30 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,450 | −$516 −12% | — |
| 120d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | June 30 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,239 | −$87 −3.9% | — |
| 120d | nukecoin-3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$465 +10% | 20 |
| 120d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed4 fills | June 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,580 | +$187 +3.4% | 20 |
| 120d |  tetrase3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,137 | +$280 +3.9% | 20 |
| 120d |  MisTKy2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,976 | +$190 +4.8% | 20 |
| 120d | Poory2 fills | June 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,408 | +$221 +9.2% | 21 |
| 120d | MEPP2 fills | July 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $4,248 | +$1,536 +36% | 20 |
| 120d |  paddaa | June 30 | SellYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,178 | +$1,178 +100% | — |
| 120d | Measly-Adapter | July 31 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 22 |
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e0515,000 shares
RememberAmalek12,015 shares
aenews27,458 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 0%.