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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 100% | +4 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Renan Santos | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fernando Haddad | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Romeu Zema | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19d | FlyingPlaty2 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,019 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 19d | BeginnersLuck2 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes>99¢ | $1,348 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 19d | aviato | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes>99¢ | $3,988 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 19d | subtenientepachon | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | −$17 −1.2% | — |
| 19d | StudentMoney11 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $23,584 | +$731 +3.1% | 4 |
| 19d | gambler9254 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,990 | +$219 +2.7% | 5 |
| 19d |  themagicofcinema | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$31 +2.7% | 5 |
| 19d | Musk5 | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,493 | +$7 +0.5% | 4 |
| 19d | StudentMoney3 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $15,565 | −$902 −5.8% | — |
| 19d |  OkieDokiePeon | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | −$150 −11% | — |
| 19d |  ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,493 | −$478 −8.7% | — |
| 19d | Musk52 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,697 | −$220 −3.9% | — |
| 19d | OLOTH | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,571 | +$29 +1.8% | 4 |
| 19d | BeginnersLuck22 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,317 | +$89 +2.7% | 5 |
| 19d |  Cupzey | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,249 | +$96 +2.3% | 5 |
| 19d | BobbyB2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,493 | +$184 +2.8% | 5 |
| 19d |  knrad | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | −$102 −5.1% | — |
| 19d | OLOTH | Romeu Zema | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,082 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 20d |  Euphemism | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,876 | +$67 +3.6% | 5 |
| 20d |  estuprador | Renan Santos | BuyNo100¢ | $4,030 | +$20 +0.5% | 4 |
| 20d | dotblue | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$73 +3.6% | 5 |
| 20d |  Rushwave | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,448 | +$53 +3.6% | 5 |
| 20d | DiaMat | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | −$35 −2.8% | — |
| 20d | Leclerc04 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$105 +5.3% | 5 |
| 20d | pietjaa2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,620 | +$46 +1.7% | 4 |
| 20d | Musk52 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,034 | +$149 +4.9% | 4 |
| 20d | subtenientepachon | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$22 +1.6% | 4 |
| 20d |  Giorgio2 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,471 | −$29 −2.0% | — |
| 21d | Abdoulay | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,266 | +$29 +0.7% | 4 |
| 21d | Abdoulay | Renan Santos | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,404 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 21d | thoodr5 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $27,542 | +$560 +2.0% | 4 |
| 21d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,326 | +$38 +1.1% | 4 |
| 21d | Lisbon | Renan Santos | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,149 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 21d |  archaic | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,757 | +$15 +0.9% | 4 |
| 21d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Tarcisio de Frietas | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,008 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 21d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Fernando Haddad | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,539 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 21d |  MiuMiuYan4 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,723 | +$264 +1.4% | 4 |
| 21d | thoodr | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,915 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 22d | Bukaj0889 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$85 +1.7% | 4 |
| 22d | 0x3fd0…0022 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,147 | +$127 +2.5% | 4 |
| 22d | coali10 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $19,979 | +$876 +4.4% | 4 |
| 22d | thoodr2 fills | Renan Santos | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,382 | +$27 +0.3% | 4 |
| 22d |  vinii2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,160 | +$188 +3.6% | 4 |
| 22d | Unwelcome-Fig | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,184 | −$257 −2.8% | — |
| 23d |  Trowah | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,744 | −$50 −2.9% | — |
| 23d | stupid22 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,696 | +$110 +3.0% | 4 |
| 23d | archaic2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,522 | +$230 +4.2% | 4 |
| 23d | Unwelcome-Fig | Michelle Bolsonaro | SellNo>99¢ | $1,250 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 24d | plumbis | Renan Santos | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,704 | −$53 −0.7% | — |
| 25d | QMG-CORE | Michelle Bolsonaro | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,465 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 26d | QMG-CORE3 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,628 | +$154 +3.3% | 4 |
| 26d | ThanksGivingTurkey10012 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,812 | +$182 +3.1% | 4 |
| 31d | knrad | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,509 | +$77 +2.2% | 4 |
| 31d | Gamble.and.bankurpt | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | −$33 −3.2% | — |
| 36d | QMG-CORE | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | +$30 +2.6% | 4 |
| 39d | Musk52 fills | Tarcisio de Frietas | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,418 | −$82 −2.4% | — |
| 50d | LulaVaiPerder | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | −$43 −4.1% | — |
| 50d | LulaVaiPerder | Renan Santos | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,868 | −$60 −3.2% | — |
| 50d | 657657572 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,197 | −$243 −3.9% | — |
| 52d |  Ryxon21 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,894 | −$90 −3.1% | — |
Euphemism1,943 shares
chatgpt.com1,000 shares
DorsetSqCap175 shares
xandinho94 shares
eiwgny13,690 sharesGeneral elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva means the market gives it about 100%.